Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 220829
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
329 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Sun May 22 2016

A few showers and thunderstorms have developed across Ncntl Neb
this morning which marks the location of a weak short wave. A
Pacific cold front will move into Wrn Neb this morning and become
stationary. The combination of the short wave and the Pacific
front will push a dryline east to near Highway 61 using the HRRR
and NAMDNG models or Highway 83 using the RAP and GFS. The
forecast uses Highway 61 as the dryline location which is close to
the SPC outlook for severe weather. The dryline will actually move
to near Highway 83 early this afternoon and then retreat west by
00z setting the stage for severe weather as temperatures warm into
the 80s.

The HRRR models and NAMDNG show dominant right moving supercells
developing across Wrn Neb around 22z between highways 61 and 83.
These models were correct forecasting a storm to develop over Wrn KS
Saturday.

Some sort of QLCS develops tonight 03z-09z across Nrn Neb which
clears the fcst area around 12z Monday morning. This has been
advertised by the NAM12 for several model runs. It is uncertain
whether this system would produce widespread severe weather. The
storms this aftn and early this evening should be quite capable of
large or very large hail and wind damage. In fact the significant
tornado parameter in the NAM12 model is quite high around 22z when
instability is peaking. A tornado may form.

Otherwise...winds remain strong across Ncntl Neb today and weaken
across Wrn Neb as the Pacific front moves east. The super-ensemble
dew point forecast shows lower to mid 60s ahead of the front this
afternoon which is a few degrees less than the very unstable NAM12
model.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Sun May 22 2016

The cold front will continue moving eastward into eastern
Nebraska by Monday morning. Surface high pressure will then be
allowed to build into the region keeping most of central Nebraska
dry. This dry spell will be short-lived, however, as rain showers
return Monday night. A series of weak low pressure systems will
continue to impact the area through the end of the week, resulting
in a potentially wet week. Severe storms are not anticipated at this
time, but will continued to be monitored over the next couple days.
Temperature-wise...high temps will hold steady in the upper 70s for
Monday and Tuesday, before gradually dropping down into the low to
mid-70s by next weekend. Overall, nighttime lows will remain in the
low to mid-50s through next Saturday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sat May 21 2016

For the KLBF terminal: Expect IFR and LIFR CIGS overnight with
CIGS ranging from 400 to 1000 FT AGL. The cloud deck will slowly
rise on Sunday, becoming VFR by mid afternoon Sunday. After 22z
Sunday, scattered thunderstorms will develop across southwestern
Nebraska. Some of these may be on the strong side from 22z Sunday
through 02z Monday. Wind gusts to 40 KTS and small hail is
possible with any thunderstorms. Heavy rain is possible as well
with VISBYS as low as 3SM. Conds will improve by late Sunday
evening. For the KVTN terminal: Expect MVFR CIGS overnight ranging
from 1000 to 1500 AGL. CIGS will improve to VFR by early afternoon
Sunday. After 23Z Sunday, there will be an increased threat for
thunderstorms with wind gusts to 40 KTS possible. VISBYS may drop
as low as 4SM with CIGS as low as 4000 FT AGL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 326 AM CDT Sun May 22 2016

WPC indicates 1 to 2 inches of rain will fall in the next 7
days. Fortunately...most of this rain will likely fall along east of
Highway 83 which would have less impact on the ongoing river
flooding on the North Platte River above and below Lake McConaughy.
Flooding will continue on the North Platte River into June.

There is no significant change on the South Platte River. The river
continues to slowly rise but remain below flood stage. The same is
true on the Platte River near Brady.

&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...Buttler
HYDROLOGY...CDC



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