Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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479 FXUS64 KLIX 101727 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1227 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 347 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Remainder of Severe TS watch has been canceled as the biggest hazard for severe storms has moved east. Cold front is moving through the area this morning and will be slow to do so. Dry air will move over the area bringing cloud cover to an end later this morning and shoving the sh/ts SE. The front is expected to hang up over the gulf Saturday and Sat night. Upper trough lobes are oriented almost W-E today, but this will change with time. The upper ridging near Alaska today will eventually begin to build into the NW CONUS by late today, this will in turn force the upper trough from Cali through the inner-mountain west to begin moving SE and orient itself more meridionally. The flow over our area will be zonal today through Saturday but as the upper trough gets a bit closer and orients N-S, it will cause a strong divergent area as it couples with the zonal flow to the south. This will set the stage for several disturbances to be produced after Saturday as there will be more upper support for these storms to develop. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 347 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Early Sunday, we should see the sfc front slowly begin to lift northward making it to the coast Sunday night and to the NE of the area by noon Monday. This will help our area have more sfc based instability starting late Sunday into much of the week. Small distubances will be produced by this upper trough to the west and will have support downstream as there will be plenty of upper divergent flow due to the interaction between the upper trough and the old zonal flow over the gulf south that will now start to become an upper ridge pattern over the eastern gulf into FL. The problem with each of these disturbances is to find where they will be each day so we will know which areas will most likely get storms and watering. These disturbances will be mesoscale in nature so there will be some investigation for each one of them starting late Sunday and this could be the case through the remainder of the week. Each one of these disturbances will be fully capable of producing severe storms and very heavy rainfall. They are expected to be transitory, but there could still be some nuissance flooding with strong rain rates. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 With the front passing down into the Gulf, there are a few lingering low clouds/ceilings pushing KMSY to MVFR status. Other locations are VFR and KMSY should be clearing in the next hours also. VFR conditions expected to continue through the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 347 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 A cold front will settle over the northern gulf Saturday. As this front moves through, winds will rise to around advisory criteria, but these winds should be short lived and flags should come up late this evening and fall by mid morning Saturday. Winds will ease through the day Saturday and remain that way through Sunday morning. Winds will then begin to rise from the SE to around 15-20kt as the old boundary starts to move north. Strong/severe storms along with widespread strong winds will be possible Monday through Tuesday as disturbances move over the northern gulf. There is a possiblity that strong disturbances impact the northern gulf waters through the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 59 81 61 77 / 0 0 10 30 BTR 65 87 66 83 / 0 0 10 30 ASD 63 87 64 83 / 0 0 10 20 MSY 70 85 71 84 / 0 0 10 20 GPT 64 86 66 82 / 0 0 0 20 PQL 62 87 63 85 / 0 0 0 10 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-557. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ550- 552-555-570-572-575-577. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ532-534-536-538-557. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ552- 555-570-572-575-577. && $$ SHORT TERM...TE LONG TERM....TE AVIATION...DS MARINE...TE