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000
FXUS64 KLIX 231923
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
223 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Under sunny skies and a zonal/progressive upper flow regime,
temperatures have warmed across the region. With the surface flow
veering to a more onshore flow with the surface high departing
stage east, some better low level moisture has started to creep
northward back into the area. This will limit critical fire
weather concerns this afternoon.

Overnight, the upper level flow will transition to a dry
northwesterly flow and a surface front will make an attempt to
near the region. Although low level moisture influx has been weak,
there is still a weak SREF signal for lower visibilities,
especially across southwest Mississippi, where some shallow fog
isn`t out of the realm of possibility, especially if some moisture
pool develops ahead of a stalling front just upstream over central
MS/AL.


On Wednesday, outside of some scattered high clouds, the story
will be temperatures (and that isn`t even much of a story). With a
continuation of increasing heights, temperatures should continue
to increase gradually...both MaxT`s and MinT`s. (Frye)

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday night)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

The long term period starts with the stalled front just to our
north and east. Again, ahead of the front there could be some
morning fog, however, as pressure gradient tightens between a high
to our east and a strengthening surface low over the high plains,
this will become less of a concern late in the week. The
northwesterly flow on the eastern periphery of a ridge axis over
Texas will eventually transition to a southwesterly flow by Friday
as a strong H5 trough begins to amplify over the central plains.
This trough will suppress the upper ridge across the Gulf of
Mexico...as such the heights and thicknesses will increase across
our region allowing for the warming trend to continue before
balancing out later in the weekend or early next week.

A cold front stalls upstream early in the weekend close to the
Sabine River and ArkLaTex region. This will likely keep most rain
chances up that way this weekend. A strong mid and upper level
impulse amplifies and takes the same path roughly as the prior
weaker impulse. This feature looks to move the aforementioned
stalled frontal boundary eastward toward our area early next week.
As it does, we`ll likely start seeing an uptick and scattered
showers and thunderstorms, especially across our western tier
counties/parishes late Monday or early Tuesday. Still low
confidence in timing and precip probs, but we`ll fine tune going
into the weekend. (Frye)


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Mostly VFR conditions through the cycle. MCB may experience some
shallow fog dropping VIS to IFR around sunrise, but this should
dissipate rather rapidly after sunrise. Otherwise, winds will
remain light and variable through the forecast. (Frye)

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Fairly benign marine conditions early on in the forecast period.
Onshore flow is anticipated to develop and gradually strengthen
through the week. During the afternoons, winds could be enhanced
over the MS Sound and Tidal Lakes. May need short fused Cautionary
headlines or even SCA if the forecast trends up even just
slightly. The pressure gradient increases on Friday and through
the weekend where Cautionary headlines and/or SCAs look to be a
safe bet across the local waters. (Frye)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  52  80  58  83 /   0   0   0  10
BTR  57  85  63  87 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  55  83  62  83 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  61  82  65  83 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  57  80  62  80 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  55  82  60  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RDF