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000
FXUS64 KLUB 180740
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
240 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Main focus for today is on a surface cold front which as of 2 am was
located along a line from near Trinidad, CO to Garden City, KS. This
front is expected to enter our forecast area around 6 am and clear
our southern counties by noon. This front will bring much cooler
temperatures to the area as well as breezy northerly winds. High
temperatures today will range from the upper 60s for our northern
counties to near 80 degrees across the south. Winds will also
increase to 20-25 mph behind the front with gusts up to 40 mph.
Winds will veer to the east tonight which should lead to the
generation of low clouds early tomorrow. Despite this increase in
clouds, cold air advection will still allow low temperatures to drop
into the upper 30s across the southwest Texas Panhandle to the upper
40s across the Rolling Plains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Surface flow will become more east to southeasterly tomorrow as a
surface low over the Central Rockies pushes southward into New
Mexico. This will help to keep temps on the cool side in terms of
both CAA and widespread stratus due to upsloping flow. Models
continue to agree with bringing and upper trough across the
southwestern CONUS tomorrow afternoon into Saturday. The lift ahead
of the upper trough will aid with widespread shower development late
Friday and lasting through late Saturday. The ECMWF continues to
supply the highest QPF totals with and average of just over an
inched progged while the GFS is just under an inch. Regardless, the
region should receive a nice wetting rainfall. While mostly showers
are expected, some embedded thunderstorms could be possible as the
upper trough pushes closer to the FA allowing for low amounts of mid
level. Upper ridging is expected to move back over the region by
early next week and will warm highs back into the 70s/80s before
another cold front possibly moves into the region by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

VFR conditions are expected to persist through this TAF period as
low ceilings this morning should remain north of KCDS. A cold
front will move south through the area around sunrise which will
lead to breezy northerly winds at all three sites.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...58