104
FXUS61 KLWX 100757
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
357 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue through Friday as a
slow moving front pushes southeast across the region.
Precipitation chances continue Saturday with yet another frontal
passage, but should improve on Sunday as high pressure moves
into the area. Shower and thunderstorm chances along with
warmer temperatures return by the middle of next week as high
pressure pushes offshore.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
An area of low pressure has now dropped south and east of our
region off the VA coast. Winds are generally out of the N/NNE,
and some showers are starting to develop once again across the
Potomac Highlands. This is in connection with the primary trough
axis, which can be seen in water vapor satellite imagery this
morning. This will pivot through the region throughout the day,
brining the chance for continued light showers. While a rumble
of thunder can`t be ruled out today, it is not very likely. High
temperatures only reach into the upper 50s to low 60s for the
northern half of the forecast area, so instability will be
quite limited. Further south, we could see a bit less in terms
of cloud cover as the trough axis pivots eastward. This could
bring highs closer to 70. This would be where the best chance
for thunder would be today as a result.

As the upper trough departs eastward overnight, there will still
be some moisture around in the low-mid levels. This could cause
some issues for those trying to view any potential auroras
tonight. Generally the further south and west you go will be
less in terms of cloudcover tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Another area of low pressure will move into the Great Lakes
Saturday before pushing into the northeast and eventually
offshore on Sunday. The cold front associated with this system
will push through on Saturday, bringing yet another chance for
showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will be in the 60s for
most of the area.

On Sunday it will be drier across the region as we move into the
backside of the aforementioned upper-low. Can`t completely rule
out some showers Sunday, but should be pretty isolated in
nature. Highs again will be in the 60s, perhaps a few degrees
warmer than Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Monday has the highest potential of the next seven days to be dry as
mid level ridging moves overhead and surface high pressure moves
offshore. Temperatures will be seasonable.

Unsettled weather returns Tuesday and Wednesday as a trough moves
eastward from the mid Mississippi Valley. While the severe weather
threat appears to be minimal with richer moisture suppressed closer
to the Gulf Coast, a warm front draped near the area could serve as
a focus for locally heavy rain. Some spread exists in potential
temperatures due to rain and frontal positions, but highs will most
likely run near or below normal.

00Z guidance points toward the trough/low departing east by
Thursday. This could yield a drier day as high pressure builds from
the north. However, another trough will be quickly approaching from
the west.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Guidance continues to indicate that CIGs will drop sharply into
the morning hours today, but as of now, that is occurring a bit
slower than anticipated. IFR conditions continue today as
precipitation chances linger.

Conditions improve to VFR on Saturday, but more showers and
perhaps a thunderstorm are possible with a cold front pushing
through. Winds shift to northeasterly tomorrow before becoming
southerly on Saturday.

No significant weather with high pressure Monday. Sub-VFR ceilings
along with showers and a few thunderstorms are possible Tuesday as a
low pressure system approaches.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds are generally light at the moment, but will pick up later
this afternoon. SCAs have been issued for the Chesapeake Bay and
lower Potomac River as a result. Winds taper off overnight into
Saturday morning. Rain showers and thunderstorms could impact
the waters again today, mainly in the afternoon. Winds shift to
northerly Friday night before shifting to southerly for the
weekend.

Southerly winds gradually increase Monday as high pressure moves
offshore. Advisories may be needed Monday afternoon, continuing
through Tuesday as a low pressure system approaches. Some
thunderstorms are also possible by Tuesday afternoon and
evening.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tidal anomalies have remained elevated into this morning, even
increasing. So, had to issued a few Coastal Flood Advisories for
some of the Chesapeake Bay zones. Honestly, could see that
extending up the Potomac as well if trends continue.

Water levels should drop well off by Sunday when offshore
northwest flow kicks in across the area.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT today for MDZ014.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for MDZ017-
     018.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT
     this evening for ANZ530-531-538-539.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ532-533-540-541.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ534-537-542-543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CJL
NEAR TERM...CJL
SHORT TERM...CJL
LONG TERM...ADS
AVIATION...ADS/CJL
MARINE...ADS/CJL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...CJL