Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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396 FXUS64 KLZK 071942 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 242 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 239 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Main concern for this forecast period, is severe thunderstorm/heavy rain potential for Wednesday afternoon and evening. 19z subjective surface analysis reveals a weak nearly stationary boundary along the I-40 corridor. this feature will move northward overnight. A few convective cells are possible during the overnight hours, as an increasing low level jet supporting a warm air advection pattern acts to force a corresponding convective response. A cold front will approach the state on Wednesday. and is expected to force convection, some some severe. Convective inhibition will be weak at the start of the day, and may allow for some activity early in the day. The strongest cells will develop and progress eastward during the mid afternoon and early evening period. Several CAM runs continue to indicate the upscale formation of a QLCS during the late afternoon hours. All possible severe phenomena will be possible with the strongest storms. A strong signal for large hail is indicated by a number of forecast parameters. Widely scattered activity is expected on Thursday, across mainly southern sections, supported by the exiting frontal boundary. The intensity of this activity will be much weaker. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through next Tuesday) Issued at 239 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Long term starts with a cold front to the south of the state which will keep rain chances in the forecast...mainly across the southern portions of the state. By Friday morning, winds aloft will become more northwesterly and finally push the front away from the state which will allow surface High pressure to build into the region. This will lead to a prolonged stretch of dry weather through much of the weekend. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 80`s with lows in the 50`s and 60`s. Rain chances will return to the forecast towards the end of Mother`s Day as High pressure departs to the east and a storm system approaches from the west. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 104 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 At this time, it appears that chances for TSRA across sites will occur after this TAF period ends. Expect MVFR ceilings across the southern half of the forecast area after 12z. 55 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 65 85 62 83 / 10 70 80 10 Camden AR 70 88 66 86 / 10 20 70 30 Harrison AR 56 83 54 77 / 0 60 40 10 Hot Springs AR 67 86 62 84 / 20 30 70 20 Little Rock AR 71 88 67 85 / 30 40 80 20 Monticello AR 73 90 69 87 / 10 10 70 30 Mount Ida AR 65 85 61 84 / 20 40 70 20 Mountain Home AR 58 83 55 79 / 0 70 50 10 Newport AR 67 85 63 82 / 20 60 80 10 Pine Bluff AR 72 88 67 84 / 20 20 80 20 Russellville AR 64 86 59 84 / 10 40 60 10 Searcy AR 67 85 63 83 / 30 50 80 10 Stuttgart AR 72 87 67 83 / 40 40 90 20 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...55 LONG TERM...65 AVIATION...55