Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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548 FXUS64 KMAF 211739 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1239 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday afternoon) Issued at 200 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024 WV imagery shows the upper trough now in central Texas, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under northwest flow aloft. The trough brought much-need rain to the area, mainly the Permian Basin/Western Low Rolling Plains. MRMS came in w/estimates of over 4 1/4" in some parts of the Permian Basin, and the Colorado River is even responding this morning. Today, surface winds will veer a little more to easterly, and upslope flow may kick off a few showers south of I-20 this morning. Convection south of the border may cross over into the Presidio Valley/Big Bend Area through Monday afternoon. Despite being on the backside of the trough today, stratus will be slow to scatter out, and highs today will be a poignant ~ 20-22F below normal. Fortunately, this will be the coldest day this forecast. Tonight, surface winds continue veering, and return flow resumes. This, as well as lingering stratus, will inhibit efficient radiational cooling, keeping overnight minimums ~ 5F below normal. Monday, a respectable rebound is in order as an upper ridge starts building in from the west, and stratus finally clears out. Thicknesses jump considerably, warming afternoon highs to only an average of ~ 5-7F below normal. Fortunately, the rest of the forecast is more befitting for this time of year. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 200 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024 Tuesday sees the heat continuing to build as mid-level ridging continues to become better positioned over the southern Great Plains. Widespread upper 80s and lower 90s are anticipated for the majority of the region, some 5-10 degrees above normal. Heading into Tuesday night, a weak cold front moves into northern portions of the area. This front is aided in its advance by a weak disturbance in the southwesterly flow over the region and by a secondary trough across the Midwest. Unfortunately, this cold front does little to overall temperatures with afternoon highs on Wednesday only a few degrees cooler than Tuesday. Our next weather system moves into SoCal late Wednesday and proceeds into the Four Corners by Thursday afternoon. Lee troughing ahead of this system should push the dryline into portions of the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos aiding in the return of at least a low thunderstorm chance for areas along and east of the dryline. Temperatures remain in the 80s and 90s overall with the low-level thermal ridge remaining near the region. Unfortunately, the trough lifts north into the central Great Plains by Friday. The result of this means the dryline is pushed back east of the majority of the region with overall dry weather making its return. Temperatures remain warm and generally 5-10 degrees above normal to close out the week and beginning next weekend, upper 80s and lower 90s for almost all. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024 MVFR CIGs will begin to lift over the next couple of hours with all terminals expected to return to VFR by mid afternoon. East winds will continue around 10 kts. Low CIGs could return overnight, especially at KFST and KPEQ. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 61 42 73 52 / 10 0 0 0 Carlsbad 60 44 77 50 / 10 0 0 0 Dryden 64 52 71 52 / 20 0 10 0 Fort Stockton 62 46 77 53 / 20 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 54 44 73 57 / 10 0 0 0 Hobbs 58 40 73 47 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 62 39 75 45 / 10 10 10 0 Midland Intl Airport 60 44 71 52 / 10 0 0 0 Odessa 59 45 72 53 / 10 0 0 0 Wink 62 46 77 52 / 10 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....91 AVIATION...29