Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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468 ACUS11 KWNS 040028 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040027 TXZ000-OKZ000-040230- Mesoscale Discussion 0620 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0727 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Areas affected...western North Texas into adjacent southwestern Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 040027Z - 040230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Ongoing convection across North Texas -- from west of Childress to the Wichita Falls/Jacksboro/Mineral Wells vicinity -- may expand in coverage/intensity over the next couple of hours. New WW issuance could become necessary, if convection can organize further. DISCUSSION...A cluster of northeastward-moving storms west of Childress will soon exit Tornado Watch 178. Some model signal is evident that the storms could persist -- and even grow upscale a bit -- over the next couple of hours. The currently observed environment -- mixed-layer CAPE near or exceeding 3000 J/kg -- would certainly support this potential. While shear remains somewhat modest, veering winds with height are providing ample shear for mid-level updraft rotation. Additionally, other storms from near Wichita Falls south to near Mineral Wells -- within generally the same background environment -- have also maintained intensity. We will continue to monitor convective evolution in the short term. Signs of increased coverage or upscale growth of this convection could warrant WW consideration. ..Goss/Guyer.. 05/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 34120118 34810004 35129893 34949794 34469706 33629674 32589790 32609850 34120118