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000
FXUS66 KMFR 200357
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
857 PM PDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.DISCUSSION...The forecast is on track for the weekend. A weak
front will bring cooler temperatures on both Saturday and Sunday,
with moderate chances (40-80%) for light showers over the Oregon
coast and Douglas County during the day Saturday. Next week will
start off warm before cool temperatures and precipitation return
midweek. -TAD


&&

.AVIATION...20/00Z TAFs...VFR conditions under clear skies and with
light winds continue through the evening and into Saturday morning.
On Saturday afternoon, a weak front will bring light showers along
the Oregon coast and gusty winds over higher elevations, especially
east of the Cascades. -TAD


&&

.MARINE...Updated 830 PM Friday, April 19, 2024...Light winds and
seas will continue through tonight. A weak cold front will bring
increasing south winds early Saturday morning, but they are expected
to remain below small craft advisory levels. The front will move
inland by the afternoon with winds becoming westerly behind it.

On Sunday, high pressure will be offshore and a thermal trough will
set up along the south coast. North winds increase across the waters
early Sunday with moderate to strong winds possibly reaching gale
force south of Cape Blanco Sunday afternoon into Monday. These gusty
winds will result in steep to very steep wind-driven seas across the
waters.

Conditions are likely to improve Tuesday into Wednesday, ahead of
the next cold front on Wednesday night into Thursday. -DW


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 441 PM PDT Fri Apr 19 2024/

..Updated AVIATION Discussion...

DISCUSSION...This afternoon through Monday morning...High pressure
is in control today, leading to sunny skies and dry conditions.
Afternoon temperatures will be on the warm side again today,
running about 10 to 15 degrees warmer than normal for late April
and more on par with early June.

Dry conditions will continue into Saturday and through the day
Saturday for most of the area. A weak front will push into the
region Saturday and flatten the ridge Saturday night into Sunday.
This front will run into a pretty dry air mass, so not much
precipitation is expected for the area. The best chances for
accumulating precipitation will be along the coast (40%-70%), in the
Umpqua Basin (20%-30%) and along the Cascades from Crater Lake
northward (20%-40%). Even the areas that do receive precipitation
are only expected to measure around 0.10"-0.20" west of the Coast
Range with only a few hundreths expected elsewhere. The remainder of
the area will likely remain dry with some increased cloud cover and
gusty winds across the region. Widespread gusts of 25 to 35 mph are
expected east of the Cascades with gusts of 15 to 25 mph expected
for areas west of the Cascades.

The front shifts east of the area Saturday night with high pressure
building in on Sunday/Monday. Frost/freezing conditions are possible
during this period of dry weather during the late nights/early
mornings in the valleys west of the Cascades. It will only be
nominally cooler on Sunday, with high temperatures closer to normal
across NW sections, but remaining at least a few degrees above
normal elsewhere. Monday will warm up substantially (up 5-10 F over
Sunday). Another thermal trough will strengthen in NorCal resulting
in another round of N-NE winds late Sunday through Monday. This
should even bring the milder weather to portions of the SW coast
(including Brookings). The remainder of the work week looks more
active as we head into the extended period. /BR-y

Extended Discussion (Monday through Friday)...Dry weather will
continue through Monday with upper ridging building into the area
albeit not a strong upper ridge that will quickly push east as an
upper trough approaches from the west. Tuesday, the upper trough
axis remains west of the forecast area, but there`s enough evidence
to suggest increasing instability along with a weak trigger Tuesday
afternoon and early evening and could be enough to warrant a slight
chance of thunderstorms along the Cascades, portions of the Eastside
and western Siskiyou County Tuesday afternoon into early Tuesday
evening.

We`ll catch a break Tuesday night with weak upper troughing over our
area, but energy is pretty weak so were not expecting precipitation.

Wednesday upper troughing remains and instability will once again
increase during the day. The operational ECMWF and GFS differ with
respect to the strength of the upper trough. The upper trough is
more pronounced and shows more convective feedback in terms of QPF.
However the individual ensemble members paint a different picture
with the majority showing a weaker solution. The GFS shows a weaker
upper trough and thus less in the way of QPF. Therefore the forecast
will lean towards the weaker ECMWF ensembles and operational GFS
solution with showers mainly along and east of the Cascades and
northern Coos and northwest Douglas County.

Upper troughiness remains over our area the rest of next week which
will result in cooler temperatures and a higher chance for showers
over a good portion of the forecast area. -Petrucelli

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None.

&&

$$