309
FXUS62 KMHX 060026
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
826 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will rebuild offshore while weak troughing
continues across the Eastern Seaboard for the next few days,
but warm moist southerly flow will lead to unsettled conditions.
Drier but hotter conditions briefly expected Wednesday, before
an approaching strong frontal system brings unsettled weather
back to the area Thursday and Friday and potentially into the
beginning of next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 8 PM Sun...Shower and thunderstorm activity has been
diminishing over the past couple of hours with loss of sfc
heating. However, cannot rule out additional precip overnight
with weak perturbations moving through flat ridging aloft ahead
of an approaching shortwave. The best chance will once again be
across coastal sections where nocturnal speed convergence could
enhance precip chances. Evening update mainly captures PoP
trends through the overnight.

Previous discussion...Latest satellite and observational trends
this afternoon show a messy picture across the Carolinas as a
weak wave of low pressure ahead of a mid-level s/w trough
migrates along a stalled frontal boundary draped across the NC
Piedmont. Also of note is a weakening surface trough, which has
proven to be a reliable focal point for showers through the day,
now beginning to rotate back eastward as mean flow becomes
southerly to southwesterly this afternoon. Airmass over the
region is quite unstable with SPC mesoanalysis showing an
uninhibited 1500-2000 J/kg SBCAPE pre-storm environment,
although shear is severely lacking at 20 kt or less. Threat for
showers and a few thunderstorms will continue into this evening,
with the highest threat focused along the coastal plain where
low-level convergence will be maximized. Isolated shower threat
will continue along the coastal trough as it swings back
eastward. Shear will remain very weak through the period and no
severe risk is expected. Given long skinny CAPEs, locally heavy
rainfall is possible in stronger storms but dry antecedent
conditions preclude a flash flooding threat.

Coverage will ebb tonight with loss of heating, but very muggy
conditions will remain in place more in line with a summer-like
pattern. A isolated showers remain possible inland, but modestly
better coverage will be near the Crystal Coast and Outer Banks
as nocturnal convective takes shape over the waters and
threatens beach locales. Lows struggle to drop below the mid-60s
inland, upper 60s along the water.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
As of 320 PM Sun...Cold front across eastern Canada this
afternoon will gradually push south towards the mid-Atlantic
tomorrow with increasingly southwesterly flow setting up across
the Carolinas. Moist and unstable airmass will remain in place
tomorrow and yet another round of showers and thunderstorms is
anticipated. Coverage will be enhanced modestly as a stronger
shortwave trough, currently over the lower MS Valley, lifts
towards the region late tomorrow afternoon. Instability will not
be a problem to come by, ranging from 1000-1500 J/kg, but a
continued lack of shear will once again preclude an appreciable
severe risk. Stronger shear associated with the s/w will work
its way into the area in the early evening, but at this point
activity will begin to wane with loss of heating and likely fail
to utilize the more favorable winds. Convection will evolve in
a classic summer pattern, with the first round along the
seabreeze advancing inland and a second, decaying round as
storms firing across central NC push towards the coastal plain.

Highs will only be a couple degrees warmer than today, in the
mid 80s inland and upper 70s to low 80s along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As 330 AM Sun...Unsettled weather will continue for the first
half of the week as weak troughing lingers over the East Coast
and warm moist southerly flow develops. By Wednesday drier
conditions will briefly return but will be accompanied by an
increase in heat and humidity. Then an approaching strong
frontal system will bring unsettled weather back to the area
late Thursday through Friday and possible into Saturday.

Monday through Wednesday...Winds will veer to the SW Monday and
Tuesday as high pressure rebuilds offshore. Despite this, a
combination of weak troughing inland and deep moist southerly
flow will bring fairly unsettled conditions through Tuesday.
Showers and convection will be diurnally enhanced and will
target the NC coastal plain. Temperatures will be in the upper
70s to low 80s Monday, and the low to mid 80s Tuesday.

Drier conditions are briefly expected Wednesday as upper level
riding builds back over the Southeast. Increasing low level
thicknesses and continued SW flow will result in hot and humid
conditions with afternoon highs reaching the upper 80s to low
90s inland, and low to mid 80s along the coast.

Thursday through Saturday...Weak upper level troughing will
again redevelop overhead Thursday with a large trough looming
across the Great Lakes. This will bring a more conducive
environment for afternoon/evening shower and thunderstorm
development with hot and humid conditions expected again.
However, questions remain about the quickness with which
troughing will develop locally and have will limit precip
chances to around 50% at this time range.

A robust shortwave trough will swing southward into the area on
Friday with a surface cold front also surging south from the
Mid-Atlantic. Ahead of this front a moist and unstable airmass
will persist, and the initial impression of this weather
pattern indicates severe weather will be possible, with
potential for a significant event if all ingredients come
together. That being said, much can change at this time scale
but we will continue to monitor this potential.

The front will push through the area sometime Friday night or
early Saturday, with mostly dry conditions expected by Saturday.
A more seasonable airmass will move in behind the front with
highs near to just below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 18z Mon/...
As of 8 PM Sun...Showers/storms diminishing this evening with
loss of heating with VFR conditions across rtes. Expect MVFR
cigs to develop late tonight, around 06-07z, across most areas
with greatest chances inland from the coast. HREF probs show
50-70% chance of IFR across far inland rtes after 08z and have
included at PGV and ISO. Cigs gradually lift through Monday
morning with pred VFR expected to return mid to late morning. A
moist and unstable airmass remain in place Monday and expect
scattered to numerous showers/storms to develop during the
afternoon bringing periods of sub-VFR conditions with greatest
coverage expected along the sea breeze.

LONG TERM /Monday night through Thursday/...
As of 330 AM Sun...Generally VFR conditions are expected
through mid next week, however unsettled conditions every day
except Wednesday could lead to moments of sub-VFR conditions
each afternoon/evening.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Monday/...
As of 330 PM Sun...Benign boating conditions in place for the
waters this afternoon, outside of increasingly isolated shower
activity along a coastal trough draped across the western
Pamlico Sound, forecast to drift eastward through the period.
Regional observations show southerly winds of around 10-15 kt
with seas around 3-4 feet. These conditions will change little
through Monday, with winds gradually veering southwesterly as
cold front approaches from the north and winds increasing
modestly in the evening with a tightening thermal gradient.

Convective coverage increases modestly especially across Onslow
and Raleigh Bays after midnight, then waning mid to late morning
on Monday.

LONG TERM /Monday night through Thursday/...
As of 330 AM Sun...Decent boating conditions will continue early
this week. Worsening conditions are expected by mid week with
Small Craft conditions likely developing across portions of the
coastal waters.

Winds Monday night will generally be SW 10-15 kts, and then
increase to 15-20 kts Tuesday. By Tuesday night, winds will
strengthen slightly more, which will lead to occasional 25 kt
gusts across the coastal waters through Wednesday. SW winds will
increase further Thursday as the gradient increaes ahead of a
cold front, and SW winds will become 20-30 kts.

Seas will be mostly 2-4 ft through Tuesday morning, and will
then increase to 3-5 ft. Late Tuesday night some 6 foot seas
will develop across portions of the coastal waters through
Wednesday. Seas will increase to 5-7 ft Thursday in response to
strengthening winds.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SK/MS
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...SGK
AVIATION...SK/SGK/MS
MARINE...SGK/MS