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000
FXUS64 KMOB 171129
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
629 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Patchy, locally dense fog will persist the next couple hours
across the region this morning resulting in some localized IFR to
VLIFR ceilings and visibility in spots. Otherwise generally MVFR
to IFR ceilings and visibilities prevail across the forecast area
and should improve back to VFR by mid morning for all locations.
MVFR to IFR ceilings will once again return tonight after
midnight and we can`t rule out some patchy, locally dense fog in
spots. Winds will remain southerly around 5 to 10mph today before
relaxing below 5mph tonight. MM/25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 432 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Thursday)
Issued at 432 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Mostly dry and warm weather continues to prevail through Thursday
for the forecast area. We transition to zonal flow aloft today with
a couple weak shortwaves rounding the periphery of the upper ridge
located over the northern Gulf of Mexico through Thursday. This
should help to maintain increased cloud cover across the area for
the near term period. An isolated shower or storm remains possible
over far interior portions of southeastern Mississippi into far
interior southwestern Alabama late this afternoon into early
evening. Temperatures will remain warm, rising into the upper 70`s
and lower 80`s today and lower to middle 80`s for Thursday.
Overnight lows will remain in the middle 60`s for most locations
tonight. A moderate risk of rip currents will remain across AL/FL
beaches through Thursday. MM/25

SHORT/LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Friday night)
Issued at 432 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Upper ridging over the Gulf will maintain a zonal flow over the
region and help to deflect systems north of the central Gulf
coast. At the surface, high pressure centered over the western
Atlantic off the Florida east coast ridges back toward the west
and across our area through late week. This will maintain a mostly
onshore low level flow across our area this week, with moisture
gradually increasing, but little if any precipitation is expected
through the week. With the increased low level moisture, some
patchy late night fog is possible at times this week. The upper
ridging weakens this weekend as a weak front moves into the area.
The approaching front along with weaker upper ridging will allow
for increased rain chances over the weekend (30-50%). Rain chances
end by early next week as the front moves east of the area and
drier air moves in. Warm temperatures expected through most of the
week with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s. By the end of the
forecast period look for a slight cool down, with highs mainly in
the 70s Sunday and Monday. Sunday night lows will be cooler as
well, mainly in the 50s. /13

MARINE...
Issued at 432 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

No significant impacts are expected through the weekend. A light
to occasionally moderate onshore flow will prevail through the
weekend with offshore flow developing by early next week. /14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      79  67  82  65  85  65  83  61 /  10  10   0   0   0   0  10  10
Pensacola   77  67  78  66  81  66  82  65 /  10   0   0   0   0   0  10   0
Destin      75  67  78  67  80  68  80  66 /  10  10   0   0   0   0  10   0
Evergreen   83  65  85  62  88  62  85  58 /  10  10   0   0  10   0  20  10
Waynesboro  82  66  84  64  87  61  81  55 /  20  10  10   0  10   0  30  20
Camden      82  65  83  63  86  61  81  55 /  10  10  10  10  20   0  20  20
Crestview   82  64  84  61  88  61  86  60 /  10   0   0   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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