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000
TXUS20 KNES 211912
SPENES
ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/21/13 1912Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1900Z KUSSELSON
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LOCATION...MASSACHUSETTS...N CONNECTICUT...E NEW YORK...
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ATTN WFOS...BOX...ALY...BGM...
ATTN RFCS...NERFC...MARFC...
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EVENT...HIGH MOISTURE AND THE THREAT OF SOME ISOLATED TRAINING FOR LOCAL
HVY RAIN AMOUNTS...
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...STRONGEST SHORT WAVES TO THE WEST OVER
EASTERN ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE AND THEN FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES.  OUT AHEAD MORE SUBTLE SHORT WAVES NY STATE INTO N NEW
ENGLAND COMBINING WITH EXCELLENT SURFACE MOISTURE ONVERGENCE, HEATING
AND WEAK BOUNDARY TO FOCUS POCKETS OF HVY RAIN C TO E CENTRAL NY AND
TRYING TO INCREASE WESTERN MA.  SINCE PWAT MOISTURE CLOSE TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMO AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS GENERALLY ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...LOCALLY HVY RAIN LIKELY TO CONTINUE AND EXPAND EAST AND THREAT
OF SOME ISOLATED TRAINING TO INCREASE WITH THE CHANCES OF HRLY RAINFALL
POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 1-1.5"/HR...POSSIBLY MORE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT CENTERED C NY TO MA.
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AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED
BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES.
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SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1900-2200Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...WEAK BOUNDARIES CONCENTRATING INTERIOR EASTERN
MA WEST TO C NY AND EXPECT CONVECTION TO INCREASE AND POSSIBLY TRAIN
A FEW SPOTS.  EVEN IF NO TRAINING...MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE WITH
MODERATE TRANSPORT OF DEEP MOISTURE CAN RESULT IN 1-1.5" IN A SHORT TIME,
ESPECIALLY AS SE ONTARIO PROVINCE CANADA SHIFTS EAST AND BECOMES MAIN
FORCING MECHANISM ALONG WITH SFC CONVERGENCE AND DAYTIME HEATING.
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....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP)....
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
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FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/PCPN/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
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LAT...LON 4302 7533 4236 7184 4191 7200 4245 7570
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