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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/21/13 1454Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13  1445Z  RUMINSKI
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LOCATION...NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGIA...
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ATTN WFOS...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...
ATTN RFCS...SERFC...
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EVENT...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR EASTERN CAROLINAS
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...WV IMAGERY THIS MRNG SHOWS UPR VORT OVER
S CENTRAL VA HAS WEAKENED SOMEWHAT PAST 24 HRS BUT STILL HAS IDENTIFIABLE
SIGNATURE. STRONGER VORT CIRCULATION OVER NE FL WITH DEFORMATION AXIS
BTWN THE TWO EXTENDING ACRS ERN CAROLINAS. PW PLUME ON THE WRN PERIPHERY
OF SUTROPICAL HIGH IN WRN ATLC ARCS ACRS ERN CAROLINAS WITH MAX VALUES
ARND 1.8". VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE THIS MRNG
BUT CNVTN COULD FIRE ALG SEA BREEZE ..DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM ONGOING CNVTN JUST OFFSHORE. BOUNDARIES MAY ALRDY BE
INITIATING CNVTN ALG ROUGHLY A KMYR/KNCA LN. CNVTN THAT DOES DEVELOP
WILL BE SLOW MVG AS PER KCHS 12Z RAOB WHICH HAS WINDS OF 15KT OR LESS
THRU ENTIRE COLUMN UP TO 2H.  KMHX SOUNDING SIMILAR..ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT
HIGHER WINDS TO 20KT AT LOWER LEVELS.
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AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED
BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES.
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SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1500-2000Z...MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...AREA OF MOST CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THIS
PD MAINLY OVER ERN CAROLINAS ALG AND E OF A LN FROM KNBC TO KFLO TO
KPGV. CNVTN TO BE SLOW MVG WITH POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED RAIN RATES FROM
MERGING CELLS/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTIONS. RAINFALL RATES MAY ALSO
BE AIDED BY SOMEWHAT DEPRESSED EL OF ARND -58C ON KCHS SOUNDING WHICH
WILL LEAD TO WARM TOPPED CNVTN. 2.0 TO 2.5" PER HR RAINFALL PSBL IN
THIS ENVIRONMENT.
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....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP)....
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
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FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/PCPN/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
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LAT...LON 3638 7776 3544 7572 3123 8013 3238 8170
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