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TXUS20 KNES 160112
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MIZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 06/16/13 0111Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13: 0045ZBELGE
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LOCATION...MICHIGAN...INDIANA...WISCONSIN...ILLINOIS...
LOCATION...MISSOURI...IOWA...
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ATTN WFOS...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...DMX...
ATTN WFOS...EAX...
ATTN RFCS...OHRFC...NCRFC...MBRFC...
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EVENT...HVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE REGION AS MCS MOVES EAST..
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LATEST STLT IMAGERY INDICATING THAT THE
STRONGEST CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS HAS STARTED TO FORM INTO
MORE OF AN W-E ORIENTED LINE ACROSS NE MO/W-CNTRL IL. A RECENT CELL
MERGER IN THIS AREA HAS ALSO LED TO RAPIDLY COOLING CLOUD TOPS INVOF
BROWN/ADAMS COUNTIES. OVERALL, RAINFALL RATES WITHIN THIS REGION ARE
LIKELY ON THE ORDER OF 2"/HR WITH UP TO 2.5"/HR POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
WHERE CELL MERGERS OCCUR.
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SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS FRNTL BNDRY DRAPED ACROSS CNTRL IA WITH DEW POINTS
CONTINUING TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S OUT AHEAD OF IT. UL IMPULSE
AS SEEN ON WV IMAGERY MOVING EASTWARD OUT OF THE CNTRL PLAINS HAS HELPED
TO KEEP CONVECTION GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HRS AS WELL AS
A BROAD AREA OF UL DIFFLUENCE WITH THE REGION BEING THE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF UL JET. OVERALL, THE MCS HAS WEAKENED SOME AS IT HAS MOVED
EASTWARD THIS EVENING, AND IT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THIS TREND. THERE IS
SOME CONCERN THOUGH THAT WITH SOME LEFTOVER MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES AND MCV`S
IN THE REGION THAT COULD PROVIDE SOME EXTRA FORCING, AS WELL AS DECENT
MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVERNIGHT INTO CNTRL IL/IN, SOME OF THE CONVECTION
COULD REMAIN STRONG WITH HVY RAINFALL A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THIS AREA.
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SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0115-0415Z...MEDIUM-LOW CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...BIGGEST CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS WILL BE
THE HVY RAINFALL FROM THE STRONGEST CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH W/CNTRL
IL. THIS COULD CAUSE VERY HVY RAINFALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME AS
THIS MOVES THROUGH. MCS IS WEAKENING PER RECENT STLT IMAGERY, BUT WITH
GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INCREASING W/SW LLJ
TONIGHT, MCS COULD MAINTAIN ITSELF OR EVEN INTENSIFY AS IT CONTINUES TO
MOVE TOWARDS THE ENE. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE MCS IS PROGRESSIVE AND
SHOULD REMAIN SO. BUT THERE ARE AREAS THROUGH NRN IL AND CNRL THAT DO
HAVE LOWER FFG VALUES THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS SITUATION UNFOLDS.
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....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP)....
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
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FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/PCPN/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
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LAT...LON 4276 8732 3984 8514 3856 9239 4136 9223
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