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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/16/13 0434Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13: 0415ZBELGE
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LOCATION...TEXAS...
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ATTN WFOS...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
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EVENT...MCS DEVELOPING AND MOVING THROUGH CNTRL TX..
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...EARLIER CLUSTER OF CONVECTION ACROSS
COMANCHE/ERATH COUNTIES PUT DOWN AN OUTFLOW BNDRY WHICH HAS HELPED TO
INITIATE A LINEAR TYPE MCS THAT IS NOW MOVING TOWARDS THE ESE INVOF
HAMILTON COUNTY. IR IMAGERY INDICATING VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS WITH THIS
CONVECTION WITH TEMPS APPROACHING -75C. SOME CELL MERGERS HAVE OCCURRED
JUST TO THE NE OF THIS CONVECTION THROUGH HOOD/JOHNSON COUNTIES MAKING
FOR A QUICK BURST OF VERY HVY RAINFALL THROUGH THIS REGION.
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GREATEST INSTABILITY AXIS REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS S/CNTRL TX WITH LL
JET STARTING TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE REGION HELPING TO INCREASE LL
MOISTURE. ALL IN ALL, THINGS ARE STARTING TO GET A BIT MORE ORGANIZED NOW
AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE CONCERN FOR THE HVY RAINFALL SHOULD BE THOUGH
AND JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AUSTIN REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. FOR THE
MOST PART, FFG VALUES VALUES REMAIN RATHER HIGH THROUGHOUT THE REGION
BUT THERE IS A CONCERN FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL CELL MERGERS,
AND ESPECIALLY ANY TRAINING CONVECTION THAT SETS UP, PARTICULAR ON THE
UPWIND EDGE OF MCS. AS THIS LINE MOVES THROUGH, COULD SEE RAINFALL RATES
OF AROUND 2"/HR.
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SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0445-0800Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE THROUGH
THE NEXT FEW HRS AS EVERYTHING SLIDES TOWARDS THE ESE. AXIS OF HEAVIEST
RAINFALL THREAT WILL BE FROM LAMPASAS/CORYELL/BELL/MCLENNAN/FALLS COUNTIES
OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. FOR THE MOST PART THE OVERALL CONVECTION SHOULD
BE PROGRESSIVE, BUT ANY TRAINING AND MERGING CONVECTION THAT SETS UP
COULD LEAD TO VERY HVY RAINFALL.
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....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP)....
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
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FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/PCPN/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
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LAT...LON 3334 9720 3218 9450 2960 9684 3082 9943
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