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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/18/13 0047Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:0015Z  JS
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LOCATION...S TENNESSEE/N TO CENT ALABAMA/N TO CENT MISSISSIPPI...
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ATTN WFOS...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...
ATTN RFCS...SERFC...LMRFC...
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EVENT...PRIMARY HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHIFTING INTO W CENT AL THOUGH STILL
WATCHING UPSTREAM FOR ANY NEW DEVELOPMENT.
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...THE LAST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES OF THE DAY
AND LATEST DATA ANALYSIS POINT TOWARD THE GREATEST CONCERN FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL TO  BE GRADUALLY SHIFTING FARTHER TO THE ESE FROM W CENT TO
CENT AL. SATELLITE ESTIMATED RATES ARE IN THE 1.5"-2.0"/HR RANGE WITH
THE STRONGER EMBEDDED CELLS OVER THIS REGION WITH SHORT TERM MAX TOTALS
OF LOCALLY GREATER THAN 2" IN A 1-2 HOUR TIME FRAME ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
APPROXIMATE LINE FROM PICKENS COUNTY TO BIBB/PERRY COUNTIES. ANALYSIS
ALSO INDICATES SOME VEERING OCCURRING WITH THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW INTO THIS
ACTIVITY PER REGIONAL VWP DATA WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS FORMING IN BROAD LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENT AXIS WEST OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE AREA FROM SW TN TO CENT
AND E CENT MS. SOME ADDITIONAL LIFT MAY STILL BE PROVIDED BY WEAK OLD
MCV/SHORTWAVE SEEN MOVING TO THE SE FROM NE LA INTO MS IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY THOUGH ITS EFFECT SEEMS TO BE RATHER MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.
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SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0045-0345Z...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH FOR ANY HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT TO GRADUALLY SHIFT MORE TO THE E AND SE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. STILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED SPOTS TO RECEIVE INTENSE
RATES UP TO 2"/HR AND TOTALS OF 2" TO NEAR 3" IN A 1-2 HOUR TIME PERIOD
FROM W CENT TO CENT AL. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH UPSTREAM OF THIS ACTIVITY
TO SEE IF ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT BEGINS TO REDEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF MS/AL
WHICH WERE AFFECTED BY HEAVY RAINFALL EARLIER IN THE DAY BUT SATELLITE
IMAGERY/RADAR COMPOSITE DATA ARE ONLY SHOWING WIDELY SCATTERED UNORGANIZED
ACTIVITY POPPING UP IN THOSE AREAS AT THIS TIME.
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....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP)....
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
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FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/PCPN/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
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LAT...LON 3537 8895 3530 8599 3206 8583 3216 8919
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