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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 06/19/13 2230Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-15 2215Z KUSSELSON
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LOCATION...MONTANA...N IDAHO...NE WASHINGTON...
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ATTN WFOS...BYZ...GGW...TFX...MSO...OTX...
ATTN RFCS...MBRFC...NWRFC...
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EVENT...NW WYOMING AND CENTRAL MONTANA CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NOW THE
BEGINNINGS OF HVY RAIN DEVELOPMENT FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIOD
ACROSS N CENTRAL/
NW MONTANA INTO S ALBERTA/SW SASKATCHEWAN
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...THIS MESSAGE WILL FOCUS ON THE SATELLITE
FEATURES THAT WILL HELP HEAVY RAINFALL SCENARIO ACROSS N CENTRAL MONTANA
INTO S ALBERTA.  LITTLE LEARY ABOUT MAX AMOUNTS THE MODELS ARE INDICATING
FOR AREA OF NORTHERN MONTANA, ESPECIALLY N CENTRAL MONTANA FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIOD.  REASON IS THAT MODELS SO FAR APPEAR TO
BE A LITTLE BIT GENEROUS ON PWAT MAX EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ROCKIES
TO CENTRAL PLAINS.  YES, THERE IS GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT THAT SEEMS
TO BE GETTING BETTER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MAX PWAT ON SATELLITE AND GPS
SITES SHOW A BROAD MAX OF 1-1.25" VALUES DAKOTAS INTO NEBRASKA WHILE GFS
HAS MUCH HIGHER MOISTURE.  SO THERE MAY NOT BE QUITE THE TYPE OF FOCUS
OF VERY HEAVY RAIN THAT OCCURS AT LEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING OR IT MAY
BE DELAYED A BIT TILL TONIGHT.  IN ANY CASE SHORT WAVE FORCING  LIFTING
NORTH THROUGH EASTERN IDAHO CONTINUING TO ACT ON  LIMITED MOISTURE SO FAR
CENTRAL MONTANA FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THAT HAS BEEN PUSHING NORTH.
IN ANY CASE EXISTING HVY RAIN CELLS ACROSS FAR NE WA...N IDAHO INTO NW
MONTANA LOOK TO BE REINFORCED BY THESE
C MONTANA CONVECTIVE CELLS AS THEY START TO TURN A BIT MORE NORTHWEST
THIS EVENING.
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AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED
BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES.
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SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 2230-0300Z...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE/OCCASIONAL HVY RAIN
CONTINUING AND REINFORCED BY SHORT WAVES LIFTING NORTH FROM NE OREGON
AND IDAHO AND REINFORCED LAST PART OF THE PERIOD FROM EASTERN IDAHO
SHORT WAVE/CENTRAL MONTANA CONVECTION AND GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT.
EXPECT A HEIGHTENED AND MORE WIDESPREAD FLOOD THREAT THIS PERIOD NE
WA-N IDAHO-NW MONTANA AND SPREADING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA AND
INTO CANADA AFTER THIS PERIOD.
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....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP)....
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
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FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/PCPN/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
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LAT...LON 5135 11470 4787 10849 4659 10974 4742 11324 4866 11756

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