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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/23/13 1238Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-14 1215Z  LP
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LOCATION...OKLAHOMA...
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ATTN WFOS...TSA...OUN...
ATTN RFCS...ABRFC...
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EVENT... HEAVY RAIN THREAT FOR TRAINING CONVECTION
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...EARLY MORNING VIS AND IR IMAGERY SHOWS A
RAPIDLY COOLING AREA OF CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN TRAINING FROM ROUGHLY
BLAINE TO PONTOTOC COUNTY IN CNTRL OK.   MANUAL SATELLITE RAINFALL
RATES SUGGEST LOCALIZED 1.0-2.0"/HR RAINFALL RATES WITHIN THIS AXIS,
PARTICULARLY WITH THE CONVECTION OVER KINGFISHER, CLEVELAND AND MCCLAIN
COUNTIES.  SATELLITE ESTIMATES SUGGEST LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS OF
2.0-3.0" ALONG THIS AXIS DURING THE LAST 3 HOURS.  LARGE SCALE FORCING
FOR ONGOING MCS APPEARS TO BE MOSTLY WAA ON THE NOSE OF DIURNALLY FAVORED
LLJ BUT THERE MAY BE A SUBTLE IMPULSE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY APPROACHING
THE FAVORED MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT.
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SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1230-1530Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...BELIEVE THE THREAT FOR TRAINING WITH REPEATING
CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM AS LOCAL
AREA VWPS INDICATE THAT 40-50KT 85H FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT BOTH
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE INTO UPWIND PORTION OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX.
THIS SHOULD AT LEAST FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF NW OK, WHICH APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING
WITH DEVELOPING CB NEAR MAJOR COUNTY, WHILE THEN TRAINING DOWNSTREAM
INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL OK.  WOULD EXPECT CONTINUED RAINFALL RATES OF
1.0-2.0"/HR IN THE MOST INTENSE AREAS OF CONVECTION WITH ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1.0-2.0" POSSIBLE.   BELIEVE THERE SHOULD EVENTUALLY
BE SOME WEAKENING TO MCS WITH A MORE NOTICEABLE MOVEMENT TO THE SSE BY
15Z AS LLJ VEERS AND BEGINS TO WEAKEN BY THAT TIME.
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....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP)....
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
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FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/PCPN/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
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LAT...LON 3638 9763 3427 9574 3400 9662 3603 9862
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