000
TXUS20 KNES 190103
SPENES
ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/19/13 0103Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:0045Z  JS
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LOCATION...SW AND FAR N OKLAHOMA/CENT KANSAS/S CENT NEBRASKA...
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ATTN WFOS...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...
ATTN RFCS...MBRFC...ABRFC...
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EVENT...TRENDS CONCERNING LINE OF EMBEDDED SUPER CELLS OVER S NEB/KS
AND CLUSTER OVER SW OK.
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...
FOR NEB/KS/FAR N OK...INTENSE CONVECTION FROM S NEB TO S KS IS BEGINNING
TO EDGE CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE FED BY 40-45KT SSE LLJ. CURRENT
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A NUMBER OF OVERSHOOTING TOPS FROM S CENT NEB TO S
CENT KS WITH SATELLITE ESTIMATED RAIN RATES OF 2-3"/HR WITH THE STRONGEST
CELLS. HAVE NOTED SOME BOWING TO THE NE PART OF THE ACTIVITY OVER S NEB/N
KS WHICH IS LIKELY AIDED BY A SURGE IN THE ASSOCIATED COLD POOL BEHIND
THAT PORTION OF THE LINE. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A HEAVY RAINFALL SITUATION
TO SET UP TO THE S AND SE OF THIS FEATURE AS THE LLJ ENCOUNTERS THIS
BOUNDARY AND THE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION SPREADING TO THE N AND NE FROM
S CENT KS/FAR N OK. CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS A PRONOUNCED SFC MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE MAX CENTERED OVER S CENT KS COLLOCATED WITH THE INTENSE
CONVECTION FROM PAWNEE/RUSH TO COMANCHE/NW WOODS(OK) COUNTIES.
FOR SW OK...STARTING TO  SEE A POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN SITUATION FOR SW OK AS
CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL INFLOW INTO THE SW END OF THE COMPLEX HAS ALLOWED
FOR SOME TRAINING/CELL MERGERS WITH CLOUD TOPS BECOMING EVEN COLDER IN
THE LAST GOES IMAGE. SATELLITE ESTIMATED RATES HAVE INCREASED TO 2-3"/HR
AND LOCALIZED TOTALS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAVE LIKELY EXCEEDED 3"
TO POSSIBLY 4" FROM AROUND HARMON TO KIOWA COUNTY.
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SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0100-0400Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK FOR KS/FAR N OK/MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR
FOR OK...
FOR NEB/KS...CURRENT IR/VIS SATELLITE/COMPOSITE RADAR ANIMATION HAS
SHOWN MOVEMENT WITH THE ACTIVITY OVER KS SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH
AS IT COULD BE THAT A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL OCCUR. HOWEVER, HAVE
DISCUSSED THE SITUATION WITH THE WPC METWATCH DESK AND BELIEVE THERE
IS A THREAT FOR S CENT TO E/SE KS AS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE LINE MAY
BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN AGAIN WITH INTERACTION BETWEEN LLJ AND COLD POOLS/LINE
SEGMENTS. SEE UPCOMING WPC METWATCH DISCUSSION/GRAPHIC.
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FOR SW OK...HAVE SEEN SOME EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE PAST HALF HOUR WITH
THE MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY, BUT ALSO STILL WATCHING NEW CELLS DEVELOPING
TO THE S AND SW OF THE COMPLEX WHICH MAY MERGE WITH AND RE-ENERGIZE THE
ACTIVITY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. LOCALIZED SATELLITE ESTIMATED
TOTALS OF 3-4" SO FAR MAY PUSH INTO THE 4-5" RANGE SHORTLY IF ACTIVITY
CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE AREA CENTERED AROUND KIOWA COUNTY.
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....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP)....
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
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FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/PCPN/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
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LAT...LON 4109 9976 4105 9749 3452 9767 3463 9976
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