000
TXUS20 KNES 171609
SPENES
ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 06/17/13 1609Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13: 1555ZDS
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LOCATION...N GEORGIA...TENNESSEE...N ALABAMA...N MISSISSIPPI...
LOCATION...SE MISSOURI...E ARKANSAS...
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ATTN WFOS...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...
ATTN RFCS...SERFC...OHRFC...LMRFC...
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EVENT...INCRSG THREAT OF HVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...WHILE THERE IS SOME ONGOING CNVTN
ACROSS PARTS OF TN/MS THIS MORNING..ADDTL STORM DVLPMT IS EXPECTED TO
BRING MORE OF A HVY RAINFALL THREAT TO PORTIONS OF AR/TN/MS/AL/GA THIS
AFTERNOON. TWO FEATURES OF INTEREST APPEAR TO HAVE INITIATED THE EARLY
CNVTN..ONE BEING A WEAK S/WV IMPULSE OVER NE AL/NW GA AND THE OTHER BEING
A POSSIBLE CIRCULATION OVER N MS SEEN IN GOES RGB AIRMASS IMAGERY THAT
WAS LEFT OVER FROM LAST NIGHTS 04-06 CNVTN OVER AR.
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ASSCD WITH THE DECAYING SQUALL LINE MOVING ACROSS WRN AR/NE TX AND MAIN
S/WV..DECENT HEIGHT FALLS ARE APPROACHING THE AREA. IN ADDITION..LOW
PRESSURE HAS STARTED DVLPG AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BNDRY OVER SE MO WITH
INCRSG INSTABILITY PER GOES SOUNDER PRODUCTS TO THE S/SE OF THIS AREA
OVER N MS/E CENTRAL TO NE AR/WRN TN. DIURNAL HEATING OVER THESE AREAS HAS
RAISED SFC TEMPS INTO THE LOW 80`S ALREADY..MUCH WARMER/MORE UNSTABLE
THAN AREAS FURTHER W THAT WERE INFLUENCED BY CLOUD COVER/PRECIP FROM
THE SQUALL LINE. SWRLY LOW LVL FLOW THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION HAS
ALLOWED FOR POOLING OF HIGH MOISTURE VALUES..WITH PW`S OF 1.7-2.0" PER
BLENDED TPW AND LOCAL 12Z RAOBS. ADDTL VERY HIGH PW`S ASSCD WITH THE
DECAYING LINE ARE APPROACHING THE AREA AND COULD BE TAPPED BY STORMS
THAT INITIATE OVER E AR/N MS.
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AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED
BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES.
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SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1610-2100Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT
TERM OUTLOOK...SOME CNVTN HAS ALREADY STARTED TO FIRE OVER NE AR TO THE S
OF THE DVLPG SFC LOW AND ADDTL CELLS SHOULD FORM ACROSS E AR/TN ON OUTFLOW
FROM THE CELLS THAT PRODUCED LOCALLY HVY RAINS OVER NW MS. THESE CELLS
WERE REGENERATING ON THE SW LOW LVL INFLOW AND ADDTL CHC OF THIS APPEARS
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON ACROSS E AR/N MS/FAR SW TN BASED ON
RAP FCST CORFIDI VECTORS/MEAN FLOW. ACROSS NE AR/TN/N AL/N GA IT APPEARS
THAT STORMS WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE BUT COULD SLOWLY MOVE OR
TRAIN IN A W-E DIRECTION OVER THE CENTRAL TO SOUTH CENTRAL TN AREA AND
FAR N AL. WITH SUCH HIGH MOISTURE ON TAP..RAINRATES COULD EASILY REACH
2"/HR AND MAY EVEN EXCEED THIS. LOCALIZED 3 HR AMOUNTS FROM MESONET STNS
NR GWO THIS MORNING REPORTED 2-3.5" OF RAIN FROM BACKBULDING CELLS. ONE
FACTOR THAT COULD TAKE AWAY FROM THE HVY RAIN POTENTIAL THOUGH IS IF
TOO MUCH CONVECTIVE DVLPMT TAKES PLACE SW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA OVER
LA/S MS WHICH COULD CUT OFF LOW LVL FLOW. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
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....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP)....
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
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FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/PCPN/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
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LAT...LON 3621 9085 3604 8460 3445 8438 3318 9075 3422 9180

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