000
TXUS20 KNES 200148
SPENES
ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
WIZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/20/13 0147Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:0132Z  JS
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LOCATION...W WISCONSIN/NW ILLINOIS/N CENT TO NE MISSOURI/SE MINNESOTA...
LOCATION...E HALF OF  IOWA...
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ATTN WFOS...GRB...LSX...DVN...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...EAX...
ATTN RFCS...NCRFC...MBRFC...
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EVENT...SIGNIFICANT TRAINING EVENT CONTINUES NEAR MN/IA
BORDER...ADDITIONAL SURGE OF CONVECTION FROM MO LIKELY TO SPREAD ACROSS
THE E HALF OF IA OVER FAR SE MN/MUCH OF W WI AND EVENTUALLY NW IL.
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...IR ANIMATION SHOWS COOLING CLOUD TOPS
WITH CONVECTION FROM N CENT IA TO CENT MO AS ACTIVITY ENCOUNTERS POCKET
OF HIGHER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY PER GOES SOUNDER PRODUCTS AND ANALYZED
AXIS OF SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. SATELLITE ESTIMATED RATES HAVE NOW
INCREASED TO OVER 2"/HR WITH THE N CENT TO CENT IA CONVECTION AND SOME OF
THE ACTIVITY OVER FAR S IA TO N CENT MO THOUGH TOTALS ARE NOT THAT HIGH
AS OF YET FOR AREAS FROM CENT IA SOUTHWARD DUE TO LIMITED TRAINING UP TO
THIS POINT. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THE AREA FROM FLOYD COUNTY OF N IA TO
AROUND FILMORE/OLMSTEAD COUNTIES OF SE MN WHERE TRAINING HAS PERSISTED FOR
SEVERAL HOURS AND LOCALIZED TOTALS OF 4"-5" OR MORE HAVE LIKELY OCCURRED.
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AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED
BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES.
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SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0130-0430Z...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...BASED ON THE INCREASE IN COLDER CLOUD TOP COVERAGE
OVER IA AND MO AND DATA ANALYSIS EXPECT NEXT SURGE OF CONVECTIVE RAINFALL
TO AFFECT MUCH OF N CENT/NE MO, THE E HALF OF IA, FAR SE MN, AND MUCH
OF W WI DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS SEVERAL MESOSCALE WAVES MOVE
ALONG THIS AXIS. WHILE THIS WILL LIKELY FINALLY PUSH THE PERSISTENT
CONVECTION EAST OF THE AFFECTED AREA OF N IA/S MN, IT WILL ALSO INCREASE
THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT FOR SPOTS FARTHER TO THE E AND NE OF THERE
INCLUDING MUCH OF W WI WHICH HAS RECEIVED AND IS CONTINUING TO RECEIVE
LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL. EXPECT RATES OF OVER 2"/HR AND SOME TRAINING
TO RESULT IN LOCALIZED TOTALS OF 3" OR MORE FROM NE MO TO W WI DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE COORDINATED WITH AND AM IN AGREEMENT WPC
METWATCH SO REFER TO THE RECENT FFGMPD AS WELL FOR DETAILS.
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....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP)....
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
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FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/PCPN/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
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LAT...LON 4629 9200 4619 8949 4030 9149 4026 9421
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