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TXUS20 KNES 210117
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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
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ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/21/13 0117Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 0045Z KUSSELSON
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LOCATION...W CENTRAL ILLINOIS...MISSOURI...NW ARKANSAS...N AND C TEXAS...
LOCATION...OKLAHOMA....
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ATTN WFOS...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...EAX...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...NCRFC...MBRFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...
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EVENT...SLOW MOVING CELL IN CENTRAL TEXAS NEAR THE BROWN...COMMANCHE-W
HAMILTON AREA...
CONVECTION AND HVY RAIN SE OK BORDERING TEXAS TO W CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...MAIN FOCUS AREA WITH CONVECTIVE LINE(S)
PUSHING EAST ACROSS SE OKLAHOMA...MISSOURI AND W CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
AREAS SOUTH OF FAR NE OKLAHOMA DID NOT GET MUCH RAINFALL YESTERDAY...SO
THOSE AREAS CAN TAKE MORE RAINFALL.  AND CONVECTIVE BAND WAS MOVING
EAST AT A QUICK ENOUGH PACE SO THAT IF IT CONTINUED WOULD ONLY RESULT
IN LOCALIZED URBAN TYPE FF.  MORE CONCERN FROM SW MO NORTH INTO CENTRAL
MO WHERE SOME AREAS RECEIVED OVER 3.0".    CONVECTIVE BAND MOVING QUICK
ENOUGH TO GIVE A FEW BURSTS OF HVY RAIN...SO AT THE CURRENT MOVEMENT WOULD
NOT RESULT IN TOO MUCH PROBLEMS EXCEPT RIGHT NOW IN THE IMMEDIATE SW TO C
MISSOURI AREA WHERE GROUND RATHER SATURATED.    SHORT WAVE THAT WAS IN C
KS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAS LIFTED NORTHEAST INTO IOWA AND WAS ALLOWING
FOR A STRONGER PUSH TO CONVECTIVE BAND AND SEEMS TO BE JUST ENOUGH PUSH
TO KEEP STEADIEST AND HVY RAIN PUSHING EAST ACROSS SW TO C MISSOURI AND
HOPEFULLY THE NEXT FEW HRS.   SLIGHT CONCERN NORTHEAST OF C MISSOURI IN
THE W CENTRAL ILLINOIS AREA WHERE CONVECTIVE OUT AHEAD RESULT IN HVY RAIN
IN THIS WESTERN ILLINOIS AREA THAT COULD BE FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL HVY
RAIN FROM POINTS TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI...SO WILL HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THAT POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL HVY RAIN THAT COULD HEIGHTEN
FF LATER THIS EVENING IN W CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
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AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED
BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES.
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SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0100-0400Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...FOR CENTRAL TEXAS...CURRENT ACTIVITY MOVING
VERY SLOWLY CENTERED ON COMMANCHE/BROWN/N MILLS COUNTY AND WILL EXPECT
CONTINUED SLOW EAST MOVEMENT AS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA CENTERED ON
HAMILTON...BOSQUE TO HILL/MCLENNAN COUNTY WITH 1-2 INCHES PER HR ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS, ESPECIALLY EAST AS IT GETS INTO BETTER MOISTURE.   BAND OF
CONVECTION SE OKLAHOMA TO SW MISSOURI SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST
AND CAN GIVE GENERAL 1-2 INCHES IN A 1-2HR PERIOD WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...BUT BECAUSE OF HIGH RAIN AMOUNTS SW TO C MISSOURI OVER THE PAST
24HRS...MAYBE EASIER TO FLOOD FROM SW TO CENTRAL MISSOURI NEXT FEW HRS.
EVEN FURTHER NORTH ROUND 1 HVY RAIN GOING THROUGH W CENTRAL ILLINOIS/EAST
CENTRAL MISSOURI (PEORIA TO MORGAN COUNTY IL TO WARREN COUNTY MO) COULD
BE FOLLOWED BY ROUND 2 COMING IN FROM CENTRAL AND SW MISSOURI DURING
LATER PAST OF THIS PERIOD TO RESULT IN POSSIBLE HEIGHTENED FF THREAT.
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....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP)....
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
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FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/PCPN/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
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LAT...LON 3962 9111 3673 9249 3154 9788 3189 9917 3758 9432

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