000
TXUS20 KNES 141930
SPENES
ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
TXZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 06/14/13 1929Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13/15 1900Z KUSSELSON
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LOCATION...S AND C TEXAS...
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ATTN WFOS...CRP...EWX...BRO...SJT...MAF...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
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EVENT...UPPER LEVEL SWIRL IN MEXICO DRIVING COMPLEX NORTH WITH SOME
CELLS PEELING EAST...
VERY HIGH MOISTURE FOR CONTINUED HVY RAIN/FF POTENTIAL...
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...JUST A FEW WORDS ABOUT THE BIG
PICTURE...EASTERN US TROF THAT HAS DRIVEN COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN FL HAS
HAD THE DOMINO EFFECT OF DRIVING MIN OF PWAT WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO AND IN TURN NUDGED THE VERY HIGH MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN SITTING
OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS WEST AND NORTH THE PAST 18HRS.  AT THE SAME TIME UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER MEXICO HAS LIFTED NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN NM/FAR WESTERN
TEXAS AND A NEW VORT/PV ANOMALY HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND
NOW SHIFTING EAST/NE TOWARD THE WEBB-MAVERICK COUNTY BORDER WITH THE
RIO GRANDE.  COMBO OF RIDGING AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AND LITTLE BIT OF
DEFORMATION HAS ADDED TO INSTABILITY AND ALLOWED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
MORE WELL NORTH OF EARLIER THIS MORNING`S COLD TOP CONVECTION WHEN IT
WAS OVER MEXICO.    HARD TO SAY WHETHER DRIFT OF COMPLEX WILL BE MORE
NORTH THAN EAST AS CLOUDS TOPS WERE TENDING TO WARM SOME WITH ENHANCED
CLOUDS DRIFTING NORTH KINNEY INTO EDWARDS...WHILE COLD CLOUD TOPS WERE
HOLDING THEIR OWN ACROSS DIMMIT AND ZAVALA COUNTY.     HIGH MOISTURE A
GIVEN HERE AND HAS BEEN FOR QUITE SOME TIME AND MAX 2.2 TO 2.35" PWAT
VALUES FEEDING INTO THE STORM WAS JUST ABOVE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
CLIMO AND PROBABLY IN THE TOP 50 PWAT VALUES FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE AND
THIS NOT EVEN WITH ANY TROPICAL SYSTEM.
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AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED
BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES.
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SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1930-2230Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...EXPECT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO CONTINUE NORTH AND
EAST WITH PV ANOMALY NOW NEAR 27.4N/100.8W CONTINUING TO BE THE DRIVER
AND DIFFLUENT FLOW AND HIGH MOISTURE CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN THE COMPLEX..BUT
MAY NOT PRODUCE THE TYPE OF LONGER TERM AMOUNTS LIKE WHAT WAS SEEN THIS
MORNING IN THE MAVERICK-ZAVALA AND ENVIRONS AREA.    NARROW TRAINING IN
LOW LEVEL FLOW CAN RESULT IN 1.5"-4" WEBB TO DIMMIT TO ZAVALA TO EDWARDS
COUNTY THIS PERIOD.
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....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP)....
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
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FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/PCPN/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
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LAT...LON 3163 10121 3071 9921 2729 9852 2887 10184
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