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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/12/13 1849Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1830Z KUSSELSON
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LOCATION...PUERTO RICO...
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ATTN WFOS...SJU...
ATTN RFCS...SERFC...
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EVENT...COLDEST CLOUD TOP OF -17C AT 1815Z CENTERED JUNCOS-SAN LORENZO...
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...MUCH DRIER TODAY, ESPECIALLY
ABOVE 700MB BUT EXPERIMENTAL CIRA LAYERED PW PRODUCTS AT:
http://cat.cira.colostate.edu/sport/layered/blended/lpw.htm WAS SHOWING
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT THE SHALLOW CUMULUS PRODUCING
HIGHLY  LOCALIZED HVY RAIN AND SLOW MOVEMENT AND CLUSTERS HANGING
AROUND CENTRAL, ESPECIALLY E CENTRAL IN THE VIC OF JUNCOS-SAN LORENZO
WHERE COLDEST COLDEST CLOUD TOP HAD BEEN -17Z AT 1815Z.    BUT IN 15
MINUTES AT 1830Z...THAT COOLEST CLOUD TOP HAS COMPLETELY COLLAPSED OR
SPLIT INTO TWO WEAKER AREA AND DRIFTING AWAY FROM AREA WHERE IT PROBABLY
PRODUCED BRIEF HVY RAIN.   NOW COOLEST CLOUD TOP ONLY -8C AND CENTERED
CANOVANAS-LOIZA-RIO GRANDE AREA.    UPPER LOW CONTINUES DRIFTING SOUTHEAST
AND SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR HAS SWEPT ACROSS THE ISLAND AND THIS CONFIRMED
WITH LAYERED PW PRODUCTS AND MAKING CELLS VERY SHALLOW RAIN PRODUCERS AND
AS A RESULT SLOW MOVERS AND AT THE MERCY OF QUICK WEAKENING OR VERY SUBTLE
OUTFLOW FLAIRUPS OR MOUNTAIN LIFT FROM THE GOOD MAY SOLAR INSOLATION.
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AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED
BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES.
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SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1845-2200Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...THIS SHALLOW CONVECTION WILL HANG FOR ANOTHER FEW
HRS BEFORE A QUICK WEAKENING/DISSIPATION WITH DECREASE SOLAR INSOLATION
AND UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO MOVE FURTHER AWAY.   ANOTHER OF SLIGHT
CONCERN WITH CLUSTERS IN W CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BUT THAT FURTHER INTO DRIER
AIR BOTH TOTAL AND ALOFT...SO LESS CONCERN THAT TO THE EAST FOR HVY RAINS.
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....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP)....
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
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FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/PCPN/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
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LAT...LON 1852 6568 1797 6563 1778 6643 1823 6701 1847 6701

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