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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/18/13 0001Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-WEST:2341Z  JS
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LOCATION...W SOUTH DAKOTA/SW NORTH DAKOTA/SE MONTANA/NE WYOMING...
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ATTN WFOS...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...
ATTN RFCS...MBRFC...
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EVENT...SUPER CELLS ARE SCATTERED ACROSS NE WY/SE MT/NW SD.
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...VIS/IR ANIMATION SHOWS WIDESPREAD COLD
CLOUD TOPS WITH A FEW OVERSHOOTING TOPS INDICATIVE OF NUMEROUS SUPER CELLS
SCATTERED OVER THE REGION. LATEST OBJECTIVELY DERIVED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
REVEALS A WELL DEFINED MAX CENTERED OVER NE WY EXTENDING TO THE NE INTO
SE MT/NW SD/SE ND WHICH IS AN INDICATION THAT SOME INTERACTIONS BETWEEN
THESE CELLS MAY LEAD TO A BIT MORE ORGANIZATION WITH THIS ACTIVITY. SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50`S ALONG WITH MAX PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF
JUST UNDER 1" YIELD SATELLITE ESTIMATED RAIN RATES OF 1.0"-1.5" WITH
THE STRONGER CELLS IN THIS AREA THOUGH RATES MAY BRIEFLY SPIKE HIGHER
TO AROUND 2.0"/HR WHERE CELL MERGERS OCCUR.
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SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0000-0300Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...DIFFICULT TO GET REAL SPECIFIC WITH OUTLOOK
GIVEN THE NUMBER OF CELLS SCATTERED ACROSS THIS REGION BUT IR/VIS
IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK ARE SHOWING DECENT COVERAGE
OF CELLS/EMBEDDED MODERATE TO LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING
ACROSS SHERIDAN/CAMPBELL/CROOK COUNTIES OF NE WY INTO PORTIONS OF
BIG HORN/ROSEBUD/POWDER RIVER/CARTER COUNTIES OF SE MT WITH STRONG NEW
DEVELOPMENT SEEN ON THE SW UPWIND END WHERE SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAX
WAS CENTERED OVER JOHNSON COUNTY OF WY. BELIEVE THERE IS A THREAT FOR
LOCALLY 1-2" OF RAINFALL IN LESS THAN AN HOUR WITH THE STRONGER EMBEDDED
ACTIVITY AND SOME THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL CELL MERGERS WHICH MAY LEAD TO
SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTERS.
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....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP)....
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
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FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/PCPN/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
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LAT...LON 4675 10703 4673 10257 4393 10273 4398 10716
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