000
TXUS20 KNES 130100
SPENES
ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 06/13/13 0100Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-14: 0057Z (SRSO)VOGT
BLENDED TPW THROUGH 2249Z
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LOCATION...OHIO...MICHIGAN...N INDIANA...WISCONSIN...
LOCATION...ILLINOIS...
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ATTN WFOS...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...GRB...LOT...ILX...
ATTN WFOS...MKX...DVN...
ATTN RFCS...OHRFC...NCRFC...
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EVENT... INCREASING FLASH FLOOD/HVY RAIN THREAT
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS... UL IMPULSE IS NOW MOVING SEWD ACROSS SE
MN/NRN IA FOLLOWING THE MID/UL WIND PATTERN... WINDS IN MID/UL LEVELS
ARE RUNNING WEST TO EAST ACROSS NRN IL BUT THEN SHIFT TOWARD THE ESE
ACROSS IN/MI/OH (WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE CURRENT
CONVECTION)... UL DIFFLUENCE REMAINS STRONG ACROSS THIS REGION WITH A 70
KT UL JET NOSING SEWD INTO SRN IL, PER LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. IN
TERMS OF SATELLITE SIGNATURE, THERE IS NOW ONE LARGE BROAD CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPS STILL COOLING TO -67C WITH SOME OF THE
OVERSHOOTING TOPS IN IL. SINCE LAST SPE, PW VALUES HAVE SUBSTANTIALLY
INCREASED THROUGH THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH PWATS NOW 1.5-1.9" (WITH THE
HIGHEST IN IA/IL ATTM).
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SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0100-0400Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK... EXPECT THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO GRADUALLY SHIFT
E-SE AS THE UL IMPULSE SHIFTS INTO NRN IA. FOCUS OF HVY RAIN AND TRAINING
WILL LIKELY BEORIENTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
NRN IL/NRN IN/NRN OH/SRN WI/MI. THE 2-MIN EXPERIMENTAL LIGHTNING STRIKE
DENSITY PRODUCT INDICATES THE THAT THE MOST LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLY
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS LOCATED ALONG THIS REGION ALREADY. GIVEN THE
SFC AND UL DYNAMICS, ALONG WITH AMPLE MOISTURE, EXPECT RAIN RATES TO
EASILY REACH 0.5"/HR WITH LOCALIZED 1.5-2.0" TOTALS OVER A 3-HR PERIOD
POSSIBLE WHICH WOULD EXCEED SOME OF THE FFG VALUES IN THE AREA. RATES
SHOULD EVENTUALLY DECREASE A BIT AS THE DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY
DECREASES... WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

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....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP)....
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
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FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/PCPN/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
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LAT...LON 4420 8826 4240 8251 3981 8384 4124 8974
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