Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
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314 FNUS73 KOAX 010939 FWSOAX Spot Forecast for North Hathaway...Iowa DNR National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 439 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024 Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on May 01. If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather Service. .DISCUSSION... Expect a mild, cloudy day with increasing shower and storm chances by early to mid-afternoon. Temperature at ignition should be around 56 with RH in the 60s. Temperature is expected to top out around 66 with RH falling to into the lower to mid 40s this afternoon. Expect north-northwest winds at around 5 mph to start, but they`ll gradually turn clockwise and settle in at easterly at 10 mph with a few gusts of 18 mph by around 2 PM. Model consensus suggests showers and a few thunderstorms will move in by 3-4 PM, though there`s about a 15-20% chance they get there as early as 1-2 PM. Winds will remain easterly and strengthen this evening/overnight before a front moves through Thursday and brings northwest winds by around noon. Expect around 1.5" of rain through this time period. Strongest Possible Wind Speeds on Day of Burn: gusts of 24 mph before showers and storms arrive, Lowest Possible Relative Humidity on Day of Burn: 25 percent, most likely if rain holds off until late afternoon .REST OF TODAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Slight chance of rain showers early in the afternoon. Chance of rain showers and slight chance of thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Max temperature.....Around 66. Min humidity........46 percent. Eye level winds.....North winds around 4 mph shifting to the east 6 to 7 mph late in the afternoon. Surface winds (mph).Northwest winds around 6 mph shifting to the east 8 to 11 mph in the afternoon. Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds around 5 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Mixing height.......2600 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Northwest around 7 mph shifting to the east 7 to 13 mph in the afternoon. Smoke dispersal.....Poor (7500 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to fair (27100 knot-ft) in the afternoon. GFDI................1. Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (CDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky (%).........80 74 71 68 74 80 86 87 Weather cov..... SCH SCH CHC CHC Weather type.... RW RW RW RW Tstm cov........ SCH SCH Temp............56 58 61 63 63 62 64 62 RH..............72 62 51 47 46 49 48 51 20 FT wind dir..NW N N NE E E E E 20 FT wind spd..5 5 5 6 6 8 8 9 20 FT wind gust.6 6 6 8 10 12 13 14 Eye lvl wnd dir.NW N N NE E E E E Eye lvl wnd spd.4 4 4 4 4 6 6 7 Eye lvl wnd gst.5 5 5 6 7 9 10 10 Surface wnd dir.NW N N NE E E E E Surface wnd spd.6 6 6 8 8 10 10 11 Surface wnd gst.8 8 8 10 12 15 16 17 Mix hgt (kft)...1.2 2.1 2.6 2.6 2.1 2.4 2.5 1.7 Transp wind dir.NW N NE NE E E E E Transp wind spd.7 7 7 9 10 12 13 13 GFDI............0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 Haines index....5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 SDspl kt-ft/10008 12 16 21 25 27 27 23 .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Chance of rain showers in the evening. Chance of thunderstorms through the night. Rain showers overnight. Min temperature.....Around 50. Max humidity........100 percent. Eye level winds.....East winds 8 to 13 mph. Gusts up to 35 mph. Surface winds (mph).East winds 13 to 23 mph. Gusts up to 35 mph. Wind (20 ft)........East winds 12 to 20 mph. Gusts up to 35 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms early in the evening. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in the late evening and overnight. Mixing height.......600 ft AGL. Transport winds.....East 14 to 23 mph increasing to 21 to 25 mph overnight. Smoke dispersal.....Fair (19800 knot-ft) early in the evening decreasing to poor (9600 knot-ft) late in the night. GFDI................1. Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM Sky (%).........88 91 96 96 96 95 Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY DEFNTE Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR Tstm cov........S CHC S CHC CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE Temp............61 56 54 53 52 51 RH..............56 66 69 71 80 87 20 ft wind......E 10 E 11 E 13 E 15 E 18 E 16 20 ft wind gust.14 17 19 23 28 24 Eye level wind..E 8 E 8 E 10 E 11 E 13 E 12 Eye lvl wnd gst.11 13 14 17 21 18 Surface wind....E 13 E 14 E 16 E 19 E 23 E 20 Surface wnd gst.18 21 24 29 35 30 Mix hgt (ft)....1300 600 700 700 900 900 Transport wind..E 14 E 16 E 17 E 22 E 25 E 25 GFDI............1 1 1 1 1 1 Haines index....5 3 3 3 3 3 SDspl kt-ft/100018 11 10 14 18 20 .THURSDAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Rain showers in the morning. Chance of thunderstorms through the day. Chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Max temperature.....Around 64. Min humidity........65 percent. Eye level winds.....Northeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northwest 8 to 11 mph in the afternoon. Surface winds (mph).East winds around 15 mph decreasing to northeast 8 to 16 mph in the morning, then shifting to the northwest 13 to 18 mph in the afternoon. Wind (20 ft)........East winds around 13 mph decreasing to 7 to 14 mph in the morning, then shifting to the northwest 12 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms early in the morning. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late in the morning. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in the afternoon. Mixing height.......3300 ft AGL. Transport winds.....East 12 to 20 mph shifting to the northwest 10 to 18 mph in the late morning and afternoon, then increasing to around 20 mph late in the afternoon. Smoke dispersal.....Poor (10500 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to good (52600 knot-ft) in the afternoon. GFDI................1. Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM Sky (%).........97 92 85 87 74 69 Weather cov.....DEFNTE DEFNTE LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR Tstm cov........CHANCE CHANCE S CHC S CHC CHANCE S CHC Temp............51 52 54 56 60 63 RH..............94 94 96 90 80 68 20 ft wind......E 12 E 10 E 6 N 10 NW 13 NW 14 20 ft wind gust.18 14 10 16 18 18 Eye level wind..E 9 E 8 E 4 N 8 NW 10 NW 11 Eye lvl wnd gst.13 11 8 12 14 14 Surface wind....E 15 E 13 E 8 N 13 NW 16 NW 18 Surface wnd gst.22 18 13 20 23 23 Mix hgt (ft)....900 800 1200 1700 2200 3100 Transport wind..E 16 E 13 NW 10 NW 13 NW 17 NW 18 GFDI............0 0 0 0 1 1 Haines index....3 3 3 3 3 3 SDspl kt-ft/100017 12 11 19 35 49 $$ Forecaster...CA Requested by...Jonathan McAndrews Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2412859.0/OAX .DELDT 05/01/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL jonathan.mcandrews@dnr.iowa.gov