National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KOHX 181659
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1159 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 1157 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

We started off cloudy this morning, but the clouds have been
breaking up and we expect temps to take off into the low to mid
80s this afternoon. As temps warm, the atmosphere will destabilize
with capes rising to 1000-2000 J/kg by late afternoon. This will
set the stage for development of showers and thunderstorms.

The first storms will form late this afternoon and evening as
an impulse moves northeast from the Southern Ms Valley. This
impulse will bring a first round of scattered thunderstorms
starting as early as 3 PM in our western counties, with storms
peaking in coverage and intensity from 7 PM to 10 PM. Later this
evening, another batch of thunderstorms in the form of a
weakening QLCS will come from the west ahead of a cold front.

Each of these rounds of storms has the potential to produce severe
wx, although latest models are not very impressive bringing shear
and instability together. Generally, the greatest thunderstorm
coverage and severe potential will exist west of I-65. It looks
like the first batch will arrive with fairly strong cape but weak
to marginal deep layer shear. A handful of warnings may bee issued
for localized wind gusts over 60 mph and severe hail over 1 inch
in diameter. Later in the evening, the instability wanes, but
shear values will become higher as the QLCS approaches. Damaging
wind gusts of 60 mph appear to be the main concern for late
evening and overnight, but a tornado cannot be ruled out for our
far northwest counties. The incoming band of storms may fall apart
pretty quickly while encountering mediocre lapse rates and more
stable surface air, possibly already worked over by early evening
storms.

Otherwise, a few spots may have some brief street flooding with
any heavy downpours this evening. We don`t expect widespread
flooding problems.

Showers and few leftover storms will move out Friday morning. We
will be left with mostly cloudy and cooler conditions as a north
breeze drops back to normal or a little cooler than normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1157 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Through the weekend, surface winds will continue to come from the
north as the center of cool high pressure slides southward across
the plains. Zonal flow aloft will bring a series of weak
disturbances, resulting in a good deal of cloud cover through the
weekend and perhaps a few light showers, mainly over our southern
counties. Weekend temps will be a little cooler than normal.
Temperatures will rebound Monday and Tuesday ahead of the next
front and chance for showers late Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Widespread MVFR to IFR conditions due to low cigs and patchy fog
are present this morning. Conditions should improve back to VFR
between 15Z and 18Z. Main aviation impact thereafter will be the
possibility of showers and thunderstorms. While isolated to
scattered storms will be possible this afternoon after about 20Z,
confidence is higher in a line of storms moving west to east
after 02Z. Strong winds, hail, and frequent lightning will be
possible. Ceilings will likely lower again back to at least MVFR
behind this line of storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      86  61  72  51 /  20  90  30  10
Clarksville    85  56  69  47 /  30  90  10  10
Crossville     81  60  70  47 /   0  80  60  10
Columbia       85  61  72  49 /  40  80  20  10
Cookeville     83  61  69  49 /   0  90  50  10
Jamestown      83  60  70  46 /   0  90  60  10
Lawrenceburg   84  62  72  51 /  30  90  30  10
Murfreesboro   86  61  72  49 /  20  90  30  10
Waverly        85  56  68  48 /  50  80  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....Clements