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000
FXUS64 KOUN 211135
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
635 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Radar mosaic shows some echoes falling from the mid-level clouds.
It does not appear that much of this is reaching the surface given
the high cloud ceilings and the secondary surge of drier air that
has moved into the area, so right now we will not include a
mention of precipitation, but will continue to monitor obs and may
add the mention of sprinkles if needed. Clouds are expected to
erode over much of the area today. Still expect a relatively cool
day with continued northerly flow. The surface ridge moves into
the area this evening and then east of the area by around sunrise
with southerly flow returning west of the ridge overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Warmer temperatures are expected Monday with the return of
southerly low-level flow. An amplifying wave moving across the
northern United States looks to nudge a cold front down toward the
area Tuesday. There will be at least some potential for storm
development near the front late Tuesday and Tuesday night,
although there may be some capping issues as well. But the front
is forecast to stall and isentropic lift developing over the
frontal surface will produce some increasing precipitation chances
Tuesday night into Wednesday. By Thursday, southwesterly flow
aloft develops over the area as a large-scale mid-level trough
progresses over the Western United States. Although there remains
a spread in model timing of this system approaching the Plains,
this spread is a little narrower than yesterday morning`s
forecast and the most likely time for this to move into the Plains
appears to be Thursday night/Friday. Of course some questions
remain as the ECMWF ejects the wave much farther north than the
GFS, and capping is always a bit of a question this far out, but
enough instability has developed across the area by this time that
severe weather is certainly possible when this system does move
though. After this system moves by, the associated surface front
does not make it very far south before washing out/lifting back
north and another mid-level trough has developed in the west and
southwesterly flow aloft is reestablished over the area. This may
set the stage for another round of storms potentially developing
Saturday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

VFR ceilings and visibilities are expected to continue with any
ceilings forecast to be ~5000 ft AGL or higher (the lowest of
which will be across northwest Oklahoma/KWWR).

Northerly winds will decrease in speed and generally become
southerly by this evening/tonight.

Mahale

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  64  41  69  54 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         63  39  71  52 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  64  41  70  53 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           62  40  77  52 /  10   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     64  38  72  53 /   0   0   0  20
Durant OK         65  41  69  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...10