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000
FXUS63 KPAH 190629
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
129 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms expected to develop this afternoon/evening.
  Widespread damaging winds (30%) will be the prominent hazard
  with the main line, while large hail (15%) and isolated
  tornadoes (5%) may also occur.

- Much cooler Friday through the weekend, as highs/lows in the
  80s/60s transition to 60s/40s. Some upper 30s are possible
  both weekend nights, and if skies clear/winds diminish, some
  frost potential exists then...with the better chance of that
  occurring being Sunday night.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 129 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Updated aviation section for 06z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 106 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

We are closely tracking a warm front`s lift across the area, in
advance of a developing and approaching broader/stronger storm
system that will produce an all hazards potential severe weather
event later this afternoon/evening. Soupy upper 60s surface dew
points are in our south already, with lower 70s just about to
enter. As the warm sector lifts this pm, the increasing moist
tongue with temps rising into the 80s will help instability
balloon, with 2000-3000 J/KG Available Potential Energy for
Convection at most unstable in the layer.

CAMs all model active convection. Some (FV3/ARW) are a little
faster and more robust, while others (NAM) are on the opposite
end of that, but all agree on the main line approaching late
today and blasting thru the area this evening. The FV3/ARW
support an aggressive bowing of the northern structure of the
line, which is a slight evolution from previous runs. The HRRR
and NSSL also bow, but are more solidly split with warm sector
convection out ahead, and then main line convection with the
cold front`s approach. We still like a basic 18-21z warm sector
threat, followed by the main threat timing of the potential
bowing line from 21-03z.

After fropa, storm threat will diminish though some lingering
pop may survive thru the overnight. Low clouds may linger
til/shortly after daybreak, after which we`ll see that
cooler/drier air work its way in/across the FA. We are still
forecasting a transition from our 80s/60s highs/lows to 60s/40s
with this airmass change, that will last thru the weekend. Some
upper 30s are possible both weekend nights, with perhaps Sunday
night the better chance for frost with clearing skies/diminished
winds.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 129 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Convection will end from west to east across the TAF sites by
12z. MVFR vsbys will accompany shra/tsra at KEVV/KOWB until 09z.
MVFR to IFR cigs will linger behind the convection at all sites for
several hours, with CGI/KMVN improving to VFR by around 13z,
and KPAH/KEVV/KOWB by 15z-18z. At KCGI/KMVN/KPAH, winds will be
from the northwest to north at 10-20kts with gusts of around
25kts through 12z, becoming less gusty and gradually decreasing
through the day. At KEVV/KOWB, southwest winds around 10 kts
will shift to the northwest then north between 08z-12z and
increase to 10-15kts.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...RST