822
FXUS65 KPUB 101119
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
519 AM MDT Fri May 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continued mountain snow and rain over the plains for the rest
  of this morning, with gradual clearing through this afternoon
  and this evening.

- Continued unsettled through Sunday with rounds of showers and
  thunderstorms and mountain snow.

- Another system possible for Wed/Wednesday night but confidence
  in details remains low at this point.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 326 AM MDT Fri May 10 2024

Currently..

Satellite imagery shows the low still sitting over the Great Basin
this morning, streaming moisture into Colorado. Radar depicts rain
and snow showers over the forecast area, with heaviest showers over
the San Luis Valley and the eastern mountains. Area observations
show light rain showers across the I-25 corridor, with locations
above 7,000ft seeing snow showers at this time. Area webcams are
showing light to moderate snow showers for most mountain locations,
though a few of our mountain adjacent locations are showing signs of
some heavier snow showers, to include the San Luis Valley and also
the Walsenburg area this hour. For this reason, have decided to add
Huerfano County into a short duration Winter Weather Advisory
until 9am this morning due to the impacts of heavy snow on area
roadways, including highway 160, that are likely seeing slick
conditions this morning.

Today and Tonight..

Models keep the low in place through the rest of today and into
tonight, shifting it only slightly southward by early tomorrow
morning. This will keep a cool and wet pattern in place for our
region, though the window of best ascent over the mountains and best
upslope over the plains will come to an end this morning. Light rain
and snow will continue to be possible throughout the day today for
all locations in and near the mountains. Can`t rule out a few
rumbles of thunder today as well, though heavy rain and stronger
storms are not expected. Additional snowfall for the higher terrain
looks to be limited to around 4 to 6 inches of new snow for most
higher terrain locations at most. Daytime highs top out in the 50s
for our mountain valleys and for the I-25 corridor today. Our far
eastern plains will miss out on most rain chances later today, but
will likely warm into the 60s and low 70s by this afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 326 AM MDT Fri May 10 2024

Upper low wobbling over the Desert Southwest lifts eastward
towards the Four Corners region on Saturday. This will bring
another round of upper forcing along with some afternoon
convective instability with showers increasing in coverage again
through the day as the system approaches. Snow levels look
higher with this second round but we could see some more
advisory type numbers across the higher peaks and passes above
9000 feet on Saturday. This wave may bring a better chance for
rain to the southeast corner of the state before it shears off
to the east. However it should stay fairly unsettled through the
night as the upper low keeps at least some isolated to scattered
rain and snow showers across the mountains overnight. Will need
to see how much instability can be realized with breaks in the
cloud cover and surface heating during the afternoon. If this
occurs, we could see some small hail with any stronger
convective elements Sat afternoon given the lower freezing
levels with the upper low overhead. HREF is showing mean CAPE
values of up to 500 J/kg.

Upper low makes eastward progress on Sunday with one more round
of showers and afternoon thunderstorms expected to ramp up
again in the afternoon with some weak wrap round forcing and
some convective instability in the afternoon. New QPF gets
progressively lower as the better moisture tap pulls off to the
east, but could see a few inches of snow fall across the higher
terrain. Although CAPE is not particularly high will need to
watch the position of the surface boundary across the southeast
plains as localized vorticity along this boundary could get
stretched by updrafts for some landspout activity if surface
based heating is sufficient. This is a low probability/low
confidence forecast at this point, but something to monitor as
details become more certain.

We dry out and warm up behind the departing system for Monday
and Tuesday with temperatures returning to above normal. Pattern
remains active next week however as another system drops in from
the northwest, ejecting some weak energy across the southwest
U.S. across CO ahead of the next system which drops in from the
northwest. Extended models/ensembles diverge with the details,
with ensembles more progressive with ejecting the system
eastward. However, consensus of current runs shows this next
system has the potential to tap some colder air with another
round of rain/snow showers across the mountains, with showers
and thunderstorms across the plains Wed/Wed Night. Drier and
warmer conditions should return for late week. -KT

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 507 AM MDT Fri May 10 2024

For KCOS..VFR ceilings and continued light rain showers are expected
to prevail for another couple of hours early this morning. MVFR
ceilings are expected between 18Z and 02Z this afternoon, as
southeasterly winds redevelop over the area and upslope tries to
redevelop as well, though rain showers will begin to tail off
around that timeframe. Ceilings improve to VFR after 02Z this
evening.

For KPUB..VFR ceilings, light rain showers, and west-northwesterly
winds are expected to continue until 15Z this morning. Showers
remain in the vicinity throughout the morning hours, with mid-level
cloud cover and westerly winds remaining throughout the
remainder of the TAF period.

For KALS..MVFR ceilings and light snow showers are expected on
station at KALS through the majority of this TAF period, along with
mainly easterly winds. Improvement to VFR ceilings is expected after
00Z this evening, though showers will likely still be lingering in
the vicinity of station through this evening.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for COZ058-
059-062-063-065>071-077-081-082.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for COZ060-
061-072>076-078>080.
Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM MDT this morning for COZ087.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...EHR