Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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FXUS65 KRIW 151113
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
513 AM MDT Fri Mar 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool but dry today with diminishing wind.

- Mainly dry weather will continue into the middle of next week.

- The warmest temperatures so far this year are expected Monday
  and Tuesday, with some locations possibly reaching 70 degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 134 AM MDT Fri Mar 15 2024

We still have a few showers out there this evening with some
residual instability from the last little piece of the system that
brought the upslope snow event yesterday. And we now, finally, look
to be entering a pattern of some nice weather for the next several
days. There are a couple of small wrinkles, but nothing of
consequence.

Dry and cool weather is expected today, with temperatures averaging
about 10 degrees below normal. The main concern has to do with
whether or not the dastardly fog monster can crawl out his lair to
feast on the fresh moisture from the melting snow and bring the
havoc of reduced visibility. At this point, tonight it looks less
likely. The showers have kept clouds around the area and most
guidance shows the clouds sticking around most of the night. It
could clear at the last minute though. The fog shouldn`t stick
around for long, it is almost Spring and not the middle of January
and the strong mid March sun should burn things off. In addition,
the gusty should finally die off so the afternoon should be cool but
pleasant. There will be chance for fog again tomorrow night,
although with some high clouds moving in late it may keep it from
forming. As of now, not enough confidence to include it in the
forecast.

There are virtually no concerns from Saturday through Wednesday. A
very weak wave could bring a few snow showers to the Bighorns
Saturday or Sunday, but with limited moisture the chance is small
and any accumulation would be slim to none. Otherwise, a ridge
will control the weather. For now, we decided to not include it
in the forecast. Otherwise, a ridge will control the weather
and probably the warmest weather so far this year. The rest of
the period will feature dry weather and increasing temperatures.
Some areas of the warmer area, like Worland, Basin and
Greybull, could see the first 70 degree high on Monday or
Tuesday. A spots could see gusty wind as well, which could lead
to elevated fire weather with the low humidity, but not enough
confidence to highlight an area..

The next more widespread chance of precipitation will move in
Wednesday night at the earliest as the ridge breaks down and we move
into a more zonal pattern. It could get active for the end of next
week and even the weekend as a couple of systems move into the area.
However, there are different solutions and details are impossible to
discern this far out.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 508 AM MDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Satellite shows lower clouds hanging in across central and
souther WY this morning, generally around 6000 feet. Cigs are
not expected to lower any through the rest of the morning, and
this will also help to impede any fog formation. Any sites with
clouds will clear out quickly this morning with all sites CLR
after 18Z and continuing overnight. Some breezes 10 to 20kts
will continue at KJAC and KRKS this morning, but this will also
decrease by 18Z, with light winds overnight tonight all sites.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hattings
AVIATION...Straub


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