Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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000
FXUS65 KRIW 061710
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1110 AM MDT SUN JUL 6 2014

.SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

ALL IS QUIET THIS MORNING AFTER THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE YEAR
YESTERDAY. FOR THOSE OF YOU THAT DO NOT LIKE THE HOT WEATHER...THERE
IS SOME GOOD NEWS AS WE WILL GRADUALLY DIAL BACK THE THERMOSTAT OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE RIDGE AXIS THAT BROUGHT THE VERY HOT
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE A BIT TODAY AND ALLOW A
COLD FRONT TO SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA FROM MONTANA. WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER THICKNESSES HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AS FOR ANY CONVECTION...THE MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME ISOLATED POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH...MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER
MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS. HOWEVER...EVEN HERE ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINTS FIRE
DANGER SHOULD EASE A BIT ACROSS AREAS WHERE FUELS ARE CRITICAL. AN
INTERESTING SITUATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS MODELS SHOW SOME JET
ENERGY BRUSHING BY THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA THAT COULD BRING SOME NOCTURNAL CONVECTION. AT THIS
TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE MOST SHOULD STAY EAST BUT IT WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL A BIT FOR MONDAY AS THE FRONT
SETTLES ACROSS THE DIVIDE AND 700 MILLIBAR FLOW BECOMES NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE. AS FOR THE CHANCE OF
CONVECTION...WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS AND THE FRONT IN THE AREA THERE
WILL BE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS LOOK TO REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST POPS LOOKED REASONABLE SO WE MADE FEW CHANGES
TO CONTINUITY. THE FRONT WILL THEN BEGIN TO WASH OUT ON TUESDAY BUT
WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT ON MORE FAIRLY COOL DAY. MODELS DO
HAVE DIFFERENCES ON CONVECTION CHANCES WITH THE GFS WETTER THAN THE
NAM. AT THIS POINT...WITH CONFIDENCE LOW WE LEFT POPS ALONE FOR THE
MOST PART.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

CHALLENGING MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST WITH EVENTUAL LOCATION OF OUR
WESTERN U.S. UPPER HIGH/RIDGE. THE ECMWF IS BACK TO BUILDING IT NWWD
THROUGH WY AND INTO THE PACNW BY FRIDAY ALREADY SHUTTING OFF THE
DEVELOPING MONSOONAL MOISTURE. THE GFS KEEPS THE UPPER HIGH TO THE
SOUTH BUT DOES EXPAND IT NWD SOME AND ESPECIALLY EAST/WEST. THE GEM
KEEPS THE LOW IN ITS CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED 4-CORNERS AREA. BY
SUNDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF HAVE A E-W ELONGATED UPPER HIGH
OVER THE SRN GREAT BASIN AND INTO NV. TYPHOON NEOGURI OUT IN THE
WESTERN PACIFIC MAY ALSO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE EVENTUAL
PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND WRN U.S. BY THE WEEKEND.
STILL LIKE THE IDEA OF A COUPLE DAYS OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION FIRST EDGING INTO THE WEST AS EARLY AS LATE
WEDNESDAY AND THEN AFFECTING THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
PROBABLY NOT A FULL FLEDGED DEEP MONSOON BUT AT LEAST SOME MID
LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO FIRE MAINLY LATE
DAY THUNDERSTORMS. WITH UNCERTAINTY BEYOND THAT AND STILL
POTENTIAL FOR SOME MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND A RIDGE/HIGH TO OUR
WEST OR SOUTHWEST WILL LIKELY KEEP AT LEAST ISOLATED POPS IN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT START TO CONFINE THEM MORE TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. CONTINUED WARM TO HOT WITH ONLY MONSOONAL MOISTURE TRYING
TO TEMPER THE HEAT AT TIMES BUT WITH WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
IT`LL LIKELY BE A VERY WARM PERIOD.

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE AIRPORTS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
EAST ACROSS MONTANA ON WITH ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER AND NEAR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
THROUGH 03Z MONDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. STRONG OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED
IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OVER AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS.

.FIRE WEATHER...

FIRE CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE TODAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
SLIDES SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO MOST AREAS
TODAY. ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE SOUTHWARD FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND BRING EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...ALTHOUGH PINPOINTING THE
AREAS OF BEST ACTIVITY IS DIFFICULT AT BEST AT THIS POINT.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...C.BAKER
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS






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