243
FXUS61 KRLX 130733
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
333 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure provides dry and mostly pleasant weather today
amid a warming trend. Wet weather returns tonight lasting into
Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 200 AM Monday...

Expecting another cool morning with surface high pressure to
our east invading the area. Most locations have already
decoupled or will within the next few hours due to stagnant air
flow from proximity to the high. Patchy fog along the sheltered
river valleys across the coalfields of VA/WV, metro valley and
the mountains. Radiational cooling also allowing for cool spots
to see low temperatures in the lower 40s across the lowlands;
upper 30s in the mountains. Pockets of frost will be possible in
the mountain valleys across Pocahontas and Randolph counties.
An SPS has been hoisted to cover this as frost not expected to
be widespread enough for an advisory.

Skies will remain mostly clear, outside of some passing cirrus
from the west through the morning. High temperatures look to be above
normal today due to southerly flow picking up this afternoon.
Highs will be in the low 80s across the lowlands, 70s to around
80 in the mountains.

Expecting more cloud coverage later this afternoon with
lowering ceilings, especially this evening when an occluding low
moves out of the Mississippi River Valley and over the eastern
Midwest. That said, PoPs increase from SW to NE later this
evening as it slowly makes its way towards us. PoPs become
likely by midnight with scattered showers, and even slight
chances for an isolated thunderstorm across the coalfields and
the eastern mountains. Tuesday looks to start out rather wet
after having a few decent, albeit chilly mornings.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Monday...

Wet weather will persist through the middle of the work week as
an upper-level trough slowly moves east across the Great Lakes
and mid-Atlantic, while a surface low and front linger over the
region. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible throughout
the period, but are forecast to be most numerous from later
Tuesday through Wednesday afternoon as the warm front goes
stationary over or just north of the CWA and the upper-level
trough gets closer. With the forecast passage of the upper
trough and the surface low and cold front late Wednesday, most
shower activity should start to taper off or move away to the
east Wednesday night.

WPC did maintain our area in a Marginal risk for excessive
rainfall for Tuesday and Tuesday night. While model precipitable
water values aren`t anything crazy (1.25-1.50 inches, maybe
some higher pockets), the potential for cumulative impacts of
multiple heavy showers or t-storms could lead to some issues.
The storm total forecast from late Mon night through Wed night
would have 1.00-1.50 inches across most of the area, but of
course some higher pockets will be possible depending on any
potential training or repeated hits.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 325 AM Monday...

Transient upper-level ridging should allow for mostly dry
conditions across the area on Thursday. That said, with enough
boundary layer moisture and some light upslope flow, a few
terrain-driven showers or t-storms are possible in the
afternoon. Models seem to be in reasonable agreement on the
passage of another front with some showers and storms Friday
afternoon or night, with some ridging expected afterwards.
However, models diverge over the weekend with how `clean` or
`dirty` the ridge may be, thus some chance POPs are maintained
across the region due to this uncertainty.

Temps look to stay near to a bit above normal during the period,
but we`ll have to keep an eye on the strength of the Friday
front to see if that may drop temps a bit for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 110 AM Monday...

VFR through the period, outside of some patchy river valley fog
this morning. Fog will mostly be confined to the sheltered river
valleys across the southern coalfields, metro valley and the
mountains. VIS could be IFR at worst, but models are not
confident in density or coverage of fog; even clearing it out by
~12Z due to mixing. Allowed TEMPO groups and VCFG to cover
scattered nature of fog.

High clouds will filter through this morning and could be
SCT at times, before becoming BKN by afternoon. CIGs will
gradually start lowering SW to NE after ~20Z as a system makes
its way towards us. VFR still expected at least until ~06Z
Tuesday though.

S`rly winds light to calm early this morning, before picking up
at a light to gentle clip by daybreak, continuing into the
afternoon. Winds will likely be breezy at times in the mountains
later today.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog could be more dense and last longer
than forecast.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              MON 05/13/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
Scattered IFR visibilities and ceilings are possible in rain
Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/LTC
NEAR TERM...ARJ/GW
SHORT TERM...FK
LONG TERM...FK
AVIATION...LTC