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000
FXUS61 KRNK 222351
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
751 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool high pressure will build into the region through tonight.
Temperatures will start to moderate heading into the middle of
the week with the approach of a cold front. This front is
expected to cross our region on Wednesday with scattered showers
mainly across the mountains.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 730 PM EDT Monday...

Expanded the Frost Advisory to include Pittsylvania and Caswell
counties. No other changes made with this update.

As of 130 PM EDT Monday...

Dry weather continues today with highs in the 50s and low 60s.
Winds shift to the northwest through the remainder of the
afternoon as an upper trough shifts east into the Atlantic.

Clear tonight with the high shifting overhead. Could see a few
high clouds across the Alleghanys by dawn. Lows will be in the
30s. Some frost will be possible across the mountains as well as
portions of the Piedmont where the growing season has begun. A
Frost Advisory will be issued to cover the potential for frost
in the Piedmont area.

Sunny again tomorrow with warming temperatures into the 60s and
70s under southwest winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 145 PM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

1: Showers Wednesday in the mountains

2: Cooler temperatures again Thursday morning

A cold front will push high pressure off the east coast during the
overnight hours Tuesday night into Wednesday. The front will graze
the area, bringing some showers primarily to our western mountain
areas. Those east of the Blue Ridge will be unlikely to see anything
more than a passing drizzle. As the cold front exits on Wednesday
night, more high pressure will fill in behind it from the north.
This will bring a cool dry airmass into the Mid-Atlantic. Thursday
as a result will be below normal in temperatures, with the potential
for frost in the mountains. Thursday also begins the growing season
for that region, so if the conditions warrant, which it appears they
do, frost advisories could be on tap Thursday morning.

Wednesday will feel warm with temps in the 60s and 70s before a much
cooler night with encroaching cool high pressure from the north.
Overnight lows will drop into the mid 30s/low 40s. With clear skies
again on Thursday though, there will be a hefty diurnal swing back
to the upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for a warming trend during the weekend.

2) Chances of showers and thunderstorms will gradually increase.

High pressure will wedge against the eastern slopes of the Blue
Ridge on Friday, and an easterly flow should keep temperatures near
or slightly below normal. A warm front will nudge northward around
the western periphery of the wedge during Friday afternoon into
Saturday, which could bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms
for the mountains. As high pressure drifts offshore by Sunday, the
wedge will weaken as the flow swings to the southwest. Increasing
warm air advection and an approaching upper level ridge will push
high temperatures above normal on Sunday afternoon. Meanwhile, a low
pressure system intensifying in the Plains could combine with the
increasing warmth and moisture to promote higher chances of showers
and thunderstorms west of the Blue Ridge as the weekend concludes.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 725 PM EDT Monday...

VFR conditions are expected across the entire area for the valid
24 hour TAF period.

Generally light and variable winds tonight, becoming southwest
Tuesday morning.

Extended Aviation Outlook...

Another cold front will arrive during Tuesday night into
Wednesday to bring the next potential for MVFR ceilings and rain
showers in the mountains. Thursday looks dry and supporting of
VFR.

A warm front approaches Friday although VFR conditions remain,
but could start to see sub-VFR toward LWB/BLF late Friday into
Friday night.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for VAZ024-035-
     044>047-058-059.
NC...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ006.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG/RCS
NEAR TERM...BMG/RCS
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...BMG