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000
FXUS61 KRNK 170627
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
227 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary across the region will be the focus for
showers and thunderstorms tonight and Wednesday. A low pressure
system tracking through the Great Lakes will push a cold front
through the region this weekend. Temperatures will remain above
normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 220 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Message:

1. Showers and isolated thunderstorms possible today.

Stalled front is currently situated over the Carolinas and then
snakes north through West Virginia. This stalled boundary will
lift back north again today as a warm front. Light
east/southeast winds will transition to southerly by late this
morning.

As a result, will see increasing cloud cover and moisture so it
will feel a little more humid today than yesterday for most.
Decaying complex of thunderstorms of the Midwest shifts east and
maybe have some showers entering the area by daybreak. Coverage
of showers today will be limited and thunderstorm chances are
even less certain, but cannot rule out a couple of storms later
this evening if we can get breaks in the clouds over the
western mountains.

Temperatures continue to remain above normal with highs once
again in the 70s for the mountains and low 80s in the east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1: Scattered showers and storms Wednesday night

2: Temperatures well above normal Thursday

An upper level low over the Great Lakes will move north into
Canada through the period. This low will send a surface wave
over the Ohio Valley then along the Mason-Dixon line Wednesday
night. Showers and thunderstorms will stick close to the this
wave and along its out- flow boundary moving east from the
southern Shenadoah Valley into central Virginia Wednesday
evening. Winds become westerly behind this wave and ahead of a
weak cold front entering the mountains after midnight. After
midnight, rain will mainly fall across the mountains, moreso
along western slopes. The front should clear the piedmont early
Thursday morning with weak high pressure moving over the region
in the afternoon. Severe potential should be limited to the
evening hours and along the outflow boundary.

Another surface wave will track across the southern Ohio Valley
then into northern Virginia on Friday. The associated front
with this wave will bring showers and thunderstorms to the area
during the day Friday. Timing has rain moving across the
mountains early in the morning then east of the Blue Ridge
around noon. A second low is expected to form over the Carolinas
Friday afternoon/evening, which will help pull the front across
the area. Some lingering scattered showers are possible in the
afternoon and evening, mainly across the mountains. Current
timing of rain and frontal passage should greatly limit severe
potential Friday.

High temperatures on Thursday will range from the lower 70s to
mid 80s...which is 10F-15F warmer than normal. Cooler
temperatures expected Friday, but will remain slightly warmer
than normal by 5F or so.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1: Dry and cooler conditions over the weekend

2: Rain may return Monday.

High pressure begins to edge into the region as a low pressure
system and a cold front move off the Carolina coast Saturday
morning. Overcast skies will give way to partly sunny skies in
the afternoon. The next chance for rain maybe Monday as a low
pressure system tracks along the Deep South then off the
Carolina coast.

Temperatures return to normal this weekend into early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 225 AM EDT Wednesday...

VFR at all terminals as of early this morning. Had LIFR fog at
LWB earlier, but high clouds have begun to move in and this
helped erode fog with vsby back to 10SM. Occasional brief drops
in vsby through daybreak from fog development is possible
across the mountains, especially in areas where it rained
yesterday.

VFR should continue throughout today, but some showers move into
the mountains later this morning and low end VFR cigs could
settle in for mountain terminals.

Southwest winds increase today and could be gusty at times for
the higher elevations. Some 20 to 25kt gusts are certainly
possible at times through early evening.


Extended Aviation Outlook...

A low pressure system and stronger cold front approach the area
through Saturday morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms,
with associated MVFR flight conditions, are expected ahead of
this system, especially each afternoon and evening. Most of the
time should be VFR. Could also have some MVFR to IFR fog at
night.

Sunday looks dry and VFR at this time.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...BMG