Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
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087 FXUS61 KRNK 242230 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 630 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry high pressure builds in tonight behind a cold front. Temperatures remain a few degrees either side of normal through the week. A warm front moves north this weekend providing a chance for a few mountain showers. Sunday through Tuesday look especially warm. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 625 PM EDT Wednesday... A weak surface convergence boundary remains situated over the area from roughly Bluefield, WV to Danville, VA. Daytime heating in addition to this weak convergence is allowing for the development of some isolated showers heading into the evening hours. These showers are expected to dissipate quickly around sunset. Have made minor adjustments to hourly temperatures, dew points, wind speeds/gusts and sky cover to better reflect the current conditions and expected trends through the late evening. As of 100 PM EDT Wednesday... Clouds are clearing this afternoon with only a few rain showers remaining over Southside Virginia and north-central North Carolina. This rain is associated with the passage of a surface front that is expected to continue east through tonight. Another reinforcing front is current over the southern Ohio Valley and will push across the area tonight, bringing a stronger push of drier air. No precipitation is expected with this second front. High pressure builds over the Great Lakes through Thursday and will extend south over our region bringing abundant sunshine and light winds for Thursday. High temperatures at or just slightly below normal. Temperatures tonight will be chilly in the 40s and possibly some upper 30s for the mountains. Depending on if skies can clear and winds can go calm, could have a few sheltered areas drop into mid/lower 30s with the potential for isolated areas of frost. However, confidence with this is rather low. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 140 PM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: 1: Slight chance of mountain showers Friday 2: Dry and warming up into the weekend During this forecast period, high pressure will be slowly moving over the eastern Great Lakes and towards New England. For us, that means we will see a wedge form on Thursday night into Friday, keeping temperatures relatively cool. In addition, a warm front will track just to our west, connected to a low pressure system in the plains and upper Midwest. Consequently, a low chance of showers exists for the mountains in far southwest VA and southern WV on Friday. Rainfall will be extremely limited. On Saturday, the high pressure causing the wedge will move offshore and away. Meanwhile a ridge will begin to intensify pretty much from the Mason-Dixon line south. Clouds will become more scarce, and southerly flow will warm us back up considerably. Highs in the upper 60s and low 70s across the region on Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 150 PM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: 1) Confidence is high for a warming trend during early next week. 2) The chance of showers and thunderstorms will increase by late Monday into Tuesday from an approaching cold front. The Mid-Atlantic will be in the warm sector of a frontal system near the upper MS valley by Sunday. Accordingly, a southerly flow will erode the lingering wedge of high pressure east of the Blue Ridge. A strong upper level ridge overhead and notable warm air advection at the surface will boost temperatures above normal to start the new week. The warmest day in this forecast period occurs on Monday when high temperatures could reach the mid 70s to the mid 80s, which is about ten to fifteen degrees above normal for late April. As a consequence of this increasing heat and a low pressure system approaching from the west, the chance of showers and thunderstorms will climb by Monday afternoon and evening in the mountains and eventually spread eastward towards Tuesday. The timeframe with the greatest chances for rain is Tuesday into Tuesday night, when the frontal passage is progged to take place. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 115 PM EDT Wednesday... Generally VFR across the region now that clouds have begun to gradually clear. Some pockets of MVFR cigs still remaining over the mountains, but should see this improve over the next few hours. Winds remain gusty through this evening from the northwest, gusting into the 20kt to occasionally 25kts at times. Highest winds will be in the mountains. Winds go light/calm overnight and remain light through tomorrow. VFR expected tonight through tomorrow outside of a chance of some fog formation from BLF to LWB. Confidence is on the lower side on potential fog formation, but still mentioned it for a few hours near daybreak at LWB and BLF. Extended Aviation Outlook... A warm front approaches Friday, and although VFR conditions remain, but could start to see sub-VFR toward LWB/BLF Friday into Saturday. -SHRA looks unlikely outside of sprinkles during this time for BLF. Sunday will be VFR. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BMG NEAR TERM...BMG/DS SHORT TERM...VFJ LONG TERM...PW/VFJ AVIATION...BMG