567
FXUS63 KSGF 250542
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1242 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and some storms return late today into Thursday.

- Risk of severe storms occur Friday through Sunday night as
  multiple rounds of storms move through the region.

- Heavy rain and the potential for flooding will accompany the
  active weather period through this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

An upper level ridge is to the west of the area leaving the
area in a northwest upper level flow pattern. A front remains
stalled to the south of the area this afternoon. A few showers
may be possible late this afternoon into this evening, but most
if not all location should remain dry and any rain that can
develop will be light and not last long.

The upper level ridge will move east across the plains as an
upper level trough moves into the southwestern CONUS tonight. As
the upper level ridge moves east the stalled front across
northern Oklahoma and Arkansas will start to move back to the
northeast as a warm front. The front will slowly move back to
the northwest tonight and Thursday. Scattered showers will
develop along and ahead of the front tonight into Thursday. Some
weak uncapped elevated instability will develop along and just
ahead of the warm front late tonight into Thursday. As a result
a few embedded thunderstorms should be able to develop Thursday
morning into the the afternoon hours. As the front moves east
the shower and storm potential should decrease in coverage by
the evening hours Thursday. No severe weather is expected, but
some small hail will be possible with a few of the storms.
Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible as the front slowly
moves northeast through the area.

Highs will warm into the lower to middle 60s on Thursday as the
warm front is slow to move north through the area and showers
and storms will occur at times through the afternoon hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

The upper level trough will move east into western Kansas on
Thursday evening/night and will then move northeast across
Nebraska on Friday and into Minnesota by Friday night. As the
trough moves northeast a dry line/cold front will move east
across the plains. Storms will develop across central Oklahoma
and Kansas Thursday evening along the front and will move east.
There is the potential that this activity develops into a line
segment and tracks across portions of the area late Thursday
night into Friday as the warm front will pushes north. Moisture
and instability will start to increase behind the front. Friday
morning there may still be a cap for surface base convection,
but elevated convection will be possible as there will be less
of a cap for elevated storms. So, the main risk with any line
segments Friday morning will likely be damaging winds. The cold
front will move into eastern Kansas Friday afternoon/evening but
will then move back to the west Friday night into Saturday.

Will have to see how quick morning convection clears to the east
and how much recovering occurs and how far to the east. The
area will be in the warm sector Friday afternoon/evening so if
the cap can weaken behind the morning convection, storms should
be able to develop across eastern Kansas Friday evening and
night. Instability will increase ahead of the front along with
shear which will lead to a risk for severe storms with this
activity. Large hail up to golf balls and damaging winds will be
the main risks. Low level shear will also increase so there
will be the risk for a few tornadoes. Storms should move east
off the front into the area. The questions is how far east
storms can move, as the front will be moving to the west and the
upper level support moving off to the northeast, and what the
coverage will be with afternoon/evening storms.

The front will move back into central Kansas on Saturday.
Another upper level trough will start to move east into the
Plains on Saturday. As this occurs additional storms will
develop long the front Saturday afternoon and evening across
central Kansas and Oklahoma. This activity will move off to the
east and could potentially form into a line and track into the
area late Saturday into Sunday. The upper level trough will move
east across the region and will send the front through the area
Saturday night into Sunday. Additional storms will likely
develop along the front. Severe weather will be possible with
the rounds of storms on Saturday and Sunday along with locally
heavy rainfall as multiple rounds of storms occur across the
area. Localized flooding will be possible through the weekend.
Showers and storms may linger into Monday but should push east
of the area by Monday evening.

Ensemble model members show an upper level ridge builds over
the region by the middle of next week with above normal
temperatures and dry conditions forecast to occur across the
region.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Conditions will be variable, but generally deteriorate, through
the TAF period. A band of light showers just exited JLN and is
currently impacting BBG and about to impact SGF at 07Z. This band
will be quick and last no more than an hour. Through tonight
and tomorrow morning, coverage of rain showers will increase,
affecting all TAF sites. Embedded thunderstorms are possible
with the rounds of rain through the entire TAF period. It is
quite difficult to nail down location and timing of these rounds
of rain/thundershowers, but there is a high likelihood in it
raining on and off throughout the TAF period. As the greater
coverage of rain settles in after 16-18Z, and a warm front
pushes north, ceilings will gradually drop to MVFR at all TAF
sites by 18Z with good probabilities for SGF and BBG to reach
IFR ceilings by 00Z. Additionally, winds will be SE`ly and gusty
with sustained winds of 13-18 kts and gusts up to 25 kts
through much of the TAF period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024



Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 26:
KSGF: 66/2016

April 27:
KSGF: 67/1899

April 28:
KSGF: 68/1896


Record Precipitation:

April 28:
KSGF: 2.19/1996

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Price
CLIMATE...Wise