109
FXUS64 KSHV 020842
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
342 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Busy morning, so will have to keep this brief. Current MCS over N
and ECntrl TX continues to make Ewd progress, ahead of the well-
defined shortwave evident on the water vapor imagery over WCntrl
TX. The heaviest rain has fallen just SW of the CWA over Cntrl and
upper SE TX, with two MCV`s evident just SW of LFK and near ACT
focusing the stronger convection and the heavier concentrations of
rainfall. While an isolated strong or severe storm can`t be ruled
out this morning mainly along the instability axis of SE TX into
WCntrl LA, the threat for locally heavy rainfall and localized
flooding will be the greatest concern mainly along and S of the
I-20 corridor of E TX/N LA before diminishing from W to E later
this morning through the afternoon with the departure of this
trough. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches with isolated
higher amounts are possible through the afternoon, before the
convection becomes more isolated/widely scattered later in the
day.

Attm, will allow the Flood Watch to expire at 00Z this
evening, although there is some hint amongst the progs with
additional convection development late this afternoon/evening
along the Red River of N TX/Srn OK, as well as farther NNE along a
weak sfc front that will shift SE into SE OK/portions of SW AR
late tonight. There is reasonable agreement amongst the progs that
a subtle shortwave trough embedded in the SW flow will develop in
VC of the Red River Valley late this afternoon, ahead of
amplifying trough that will lift NE into the Nrn Plains/Upper
Midwest. This attendant forcing will help to amplify convection
to our NW, before it slides SE into portions of the area after
midnight. Given the uncertainties with the extent and associated
QPF with this convection, do not have enough confidence yet to
extend or expand the Flood Watch through tonight, and thus will
allow the day shift to review the latest model data and extend it
if needed in the afternoon forecast package.

Convection should become more numerous across much of the area
Friday with this trough passage, before a lull in the convection
occurs Friday night. Near to below normal temps due to the rain
cooled air is expected through the short term.

15

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

The unsettled weather pattern will continue through the upcoming
weekend, as the flow aloft remains SW beneath the Nrn Plains
troughing, before being replaced with the ahead of the next
upstream troughing over the Great Basin. The lead perturbation is
progged to traverse the area Saturday, with diurnal heating
contributing to scattered convection development during the day,
with a second perturbation in wake of the first one again focusing
at least scattered convection over the region. Should start to see
a more definitive warming trend commencing Monday, although the
influence of the ejecting Cntrl Rockies trough may still yield the
potential for isolated to scattered convection over the area.
Drier air should begin to mix down as the deep lyr flow becomes
more SW Tuesday, which should result in isolated convection (at
best) and even hotter conditions as we move through the latter
portions of the extended. In fact, there is enough consensus of
near 90 degree temps over Deep E TX/N LA Tuesday, becoming more
widespread Wednesday/Thursday. Resultant heat indices should range
from the mid 90s to near 100 degrees for mid and late week.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

For the 02/06Z TAFs, conditions continue to deteriorate, with area
METARs indicating descending CIGs ahead of showers and storms
entering east Texas airspace from the south and west. This area of
rainfall has shown a history of being very electrified, thus
carrying more TSRA than SHRA as it treks into the ArkLaTex
through this forecast period. With the heaviest convection,
deterioration to LIFR conditions will be possible. Southeasterly
winds will continue throughout at speeds of 5 to 15 kts with
higher gusts possible in the vicinity of stronger convection.

/26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78  70  81  68 / 100  50  70  10
MLU  80  68  79  65 /  80  50  80  20
DEQ  76  64  81  64 /  90  50  50  20
TXK  77  66  80  66 /  90  50  60  20
ELD  77  66  79  64 /  80  60  70  20
TYR  80  68  82  68 / 100  40  50  10
GGG  78  67  81  67 / 100  50  60  10
LFK  82  68  82  68 / 100  50  70  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...Flood Watch through this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...None.
TX...Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...26