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000
FXUS64 KSHV 131950
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
250 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Our ongoing string of quiet weather days will continue through the
remainder of the weekend and into the beginning of next week. Upper
level ridging, more or less directly overhead this afternoon,
keeping subsidence in place before upper level flow begins to
flatten out somewhat, with a weak disturbance emerging over the
upper plains and pseudo-zonal flow overhead for the Four State
Region.

Ultimately, no major changes to the rest of the weekend`s forecast,
which will be dominated by mostly sunny skies, with another mostly
clear afternoon and scattered clouds increasing overnight. The
ridging overhead and increasing southerly winds will enhance our now
well-established warming trend, with highs soaring back into the low
to mid 80s tomorrow afternoon. Lows will likewise see a warming
trend, dropping only into the upper 50s tonight, with more 60s
tomorrow night.

/26/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

The amplifying ridge over the Front Range ahead of a deepening
trough over the Pacific Coast ridge will drift eastward over the
Plains late Sunday and overnight into Monday, quickly trekking
across the Four State Region and passing on to our east by Monday
afternoon.

Very little has changed in terms of the position and timing of the
storms and possible sevre weather. Following on the heels of this
weekend`s ridge, the deep trough and its closed low will push across
the Intermountain West Monday, crossing the Plains in time to swing
a surface cold front and attendant storm system into the ArkLaTex
overnight Monday into the early hours of Tuesday. As of this
writing, storms do not look to enter our northwesternmost zones
until after 00Z Tuesday at the earliest, becoming more widespread to
the south and east as dawn approaches, overspreading the majority of
the reason by Tuesday afternoon before departing to the north and
east Tuesday evening.

Much of the ArkLaTex along and north of the I-20 corridor, now
including more of east Texas, remains in a 15% outlook for severe
thunderstorms with the Tuesday system. It remains too early at this
time to confidently speculate on potential modes of severe weather.
For now, all modes should be considered possible, along with the
potential for further flash flooding in areas which remain saturated
with still-swollen creeks and rivers. Only the southern Arkansas
zones of the ArkLaTex are currently outlooked in the Excessive
Rainfall Outlook, but given the recent days of flooding rains, it
will not take much additional rainfall to cause potential hazards.
The next update to the D4-8 severe weather outlook will be issued
overnight tonight.

Behind Tuesday`s trough, pseudo-zonal flow will dominate the upper
level pattern for the ArkLaTex Wednesday, on which some weaker
disturbances will ride in, bringing a return of showers and storms
late in the week, making for an unsettled end of this extended
forecast period, followed by a cold front which may be deep enough
to break the sustained trend of 80 degree afternoons which will
continue throughout next week, with morning lows generally in the
60s throughout.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Aside from some thin cirrus which may affect portions of E TX/Srn
AR/N LA this afternoon, VFR conditions will continue through the
evening and at least a portion of the overnight hours. However, a
SSWrly LLJ will result in the development of some MVFR cigs over
ECntrl TX after 08Z Saturday, which may affect the E TX terminals
after 10Z. While these cigs may briefly affect portions of NW
LA/extreme SW AR after 12Z, they should scatter quickly, but may
linger a bit longer through much of the morning over E TX before
eventually scattering out during the afternoon. A scattered cu
field should eventually develop/spread NE into SCntrl AR by late
morning, and across the remainder of N LA during the afternoon. A
tightening pressure gradient will result in more wind than what
has been observed the last couple of days, with S winds 7-13kts
this afternoon, and gusts to 20-25kts over E TX/extreme Wrn LA.
Winds will diminish slightly to 5-10kts after 00Z, although a bit
higher 10-15kts over the Wrn sections of E TX. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  83  60  84  65 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  83  55  85  61 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  80  54  81  60 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  81  58  83  63 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  82  56  83  60 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  80  60  82  65 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  81  58  83  63 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  83  58  85  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...15