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000
FXUS64 KTSA 221947
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
247 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 222 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

South winds will continue tonight, resulting in milder overnight
lows. Given the dry low level airmass, any areas that shelter
from winds will again be rather chilly, though not so much as
this morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Monday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Further warming anticipated Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold
front. The boundary is expected to be near I-44 corridor just
before 00z, with isolated to scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms expected along the front late Tuesday afternoon,
mainly NW AR and far NE OK. Some expansion in coverage is
depicted by most guidance Tuesday night as the front slowly moves
south, before eventually stalling near the Red River early Wed
morning.

Frontal zone should remain fairly active Wed/Thu as it eventually
lifts north as a warm front in response to flow becoming more
southwesterly with time. For the most part convection should
remain elevated during this period, but a few strong or
marginally severe storms possible by Wed night into Thursday as
low level moisture profiles improve. The front will result in
cooler temps for a couple of days, and if precip remains
widespread enough and arrives early, Wed high temps could end up
cooler than forecast.

Moving toward the later part of the week into the weekend, the
pattern remains very active while likely becoming more conducive
to severe weather, just in time for the most climatologically
favored time of year. A strong initial upper low is forecast to
eject into the plains by Friday with continued expansion of the
warm sector from later Thursday into Friday. This looks to be
followed rather quickly by another strong system this weekend.
While specific timing of features remains in question, there is at
least some degree of potential for a multi-day severe weather
threat in the plains, with Friday and Saturday currently the
most favored days for our area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1140 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Clear or mostly clear skies will persist through Tuesday morning,
at which time mid and high level clouds will gradually increase
but no rain is expected during the TAF period. Breezy southerly
winds with gusts of 15-25 mph will continue through sundown. These
winds will continue, albeit a bit weaker overnight, allowing for
a period of LLWS from the southwest. Tomorrow morning the
southerly winds will increase again with wind shear diminishing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   54  81  54  69 /   0  10  20  50
FSM   47  80  59  72 /   0  10  30  40
MLC   53  79  59  72 /   0  10  30  50
BVO   51  79  49  68 /   0  10  10  40
FYV   49  78  52  70 /   0  20  30  40
BYV   51  77  51  69 /   0  30  20  20
MKO   52  78  57  69 /   0  10  30  50
MIO   52  76  48  69 /   0  20  10  30
F10   53  79  57  69 /   0  10  30  60
HHW   48  75  60  75 /   0   0  20  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...06