Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 281529
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1029 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1026 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Forecast is on track for today. Under near full insolation and
rising heights aloft, the warming trend begins. Highs should top
out upper 60s to near 70 most places. South winds return today,
but will not be that strong yet due to close proximity of surface
ridge to the east, but that will change by Friday.

Lacy

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

A warming trend will begin today as south winds return. Afternoon
high temperatures will generally range from the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

The warming trend will continue Friday through the weekend. Gusty
south winds will raise fire weather concerns significantly,
especially across northeast Oklahoma, although considerable high
level cloudiness may keep concerns a bit lower than they otherwise
would be. The cloudiness may also help keep wind gusts just below
advisory levels, but this will need to be monitored.

Increasing low level moisture over the weekend will temper fire
weather concerns somewhat, and wind speeds will also be lower,
especially on Saturday as a weak frontal boundary stalls near the
Kansas/Oklahoma border.

Shower and thunderstorm chances return late Sunday night and
really ramp up Monday afternoon and evening as a cold front
approaches from the northwest. Models are coming into better
agreement that severe storms will be possible during this time
frame, with all severe hazards possible.

A few showers may linger into Tuesday as the upper trough swings
across the area, and temperatures will also be much cooler
Tuesday. The cool weather will be short lived as another warming
trend will begin next Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

VFR conditions will continue to prevail at all TAF
sites through the forecast period. Light and variable surface
winds will continue through the remainder of the morning before
south/southwesterly winds increase around midday today.
Occasional gusts 15-20 knots will be possible at BVO and TUL in
the afternoon. A low-level jet will develop and will spread west-
to-east over the region late tonight and into Friday morning. As
such, added LLWS to the TAFs overnight tonight.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  54  75  56 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   70  49  76  55 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   70  54  75  57 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   70  49  75  51 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   67  46  73  52 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   67  47  73  54 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   67  51  75  56 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   66  50  73  53 /   0   0   0  10
F10   69  53  74  56 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   68  50  74  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...30
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...67


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