452
FXUS64 KTSA 290144
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
844 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 839 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Scattered strong to severe storms ongoing across far E OK into NW
AR will continue to steadily spread eastward through the evening.
A slow but steady downward trend in both intensity and coverage is
expected after the next few hours as the boundary layer
stabilizes. Until then a continued tornadic risk will remain with
the ongoing tornado watch gradually being cleared from west to
east. Updated forecasts will capture latest storm coverage trends
and watch configuration.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Sunday)
Issued at 143 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

After an active last few days, the early part of the work week
will provide a brief break, with surface high pressure bringing
dry weather into much of Tuesday. A storm system in the Northern
Plains toward the middle of the week will drag a front southward
toward the Oklahoma/Kansas border, leading to low shower and
thunderstorm chances on Wednesday. More widespread shower and
thunderstorm chances will arrive Thursday along with a cold front
that is expected to move through the area. Both severe weather and
heavy rain/flooding threats will exist with the Thursday and
Thursday night storms. Low shower and thunderstorm chances will
continue into early next weekend, with a more substantial system
expected toward the end of next weekend along with higher storm
chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will persist across E OK & NW
AR this evening, gradually ending west to east early tonight.
Locations impacted by storms may experience periods of IFR cigs/
vis (low chance for LIFR) as well as strong & erratic winds,
primarily across NW AR this evening. After precip ends, guidance
continues to suggest IFR cigs and fog potential overnight into
Monday morning for much of the region. VFR conditions are expected
to return by Monday afternoon areawide.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   55  80  59  86 /  20   0   0   0
FSM   61  83  59  87 /  60   0   0   0
MLC   59  83  60  86 /  30   0   0   0
BVO   49  80  54  86 /  10   0   0  10
FYV   57  80  55  85 /  60   0   0   0
BYV   59  78  54  84 /  60   0   0   0
MKO   57  80  57  84 /  40   0   0   0
MIO   54  78  54  84 /  50   0   0   0
F10   56  80  58  84 /  20   0   0   0
HHW   61  81  59  82 /  50   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Monday for OKZ049-053-058-063-068-069-
     072-074>076.

AR...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Monday for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-
     029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...43