175
FXUS65 KTWC 302134
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
234 PM MST Tue Apr 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Sunny, warm and dry this week with breezy afternoons
most days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Abundant sunshine this afternoon with satellite
imagery showing a clear sky across the desert SW. Afternoon
temperatures were running 3 to 6 degrees warmer than Monday.

Dry W-SW flow aloft for the remainder of the work week into
Saturday with highs similar to today and afternoon breezes.
Wednesday looks to the the winder day with trof passing by
to our north.

Possible changes in the Sunday/Monday time period associated
with a stronger upper level trof moving through the wrn CONUS.
12z GEFS is deeper than 12z EPS/GEPS. I didn`t deviate from the
recommended initialization which shows only a slight drop in
temperatures by Monday. But there is a large spread in the high
temperatures for Sunday and Monday. For example, based on in-house
low-level thickness study, 12z GFS has a high of 79 degrees for
Tucson Monday while 12z ECMWF has high of 89 degrees. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 02/00Z.
SKC conditions through the valid period. SFC winds SWLY 10-20 kts
thru 04Z becoming light and variable thereafter. Winds increase and
become SWLY at 10-20 kts after 17Z with gusts up to 30 kts. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...High temperatures will be 3-8 degrees above normal
into the upcoming weekend. 20-foot winds will generally be 15 mph or
less most of this week, with afternoon gustiness resulting from
surface heating. The strongest winds are expected on Wednesday, with
southwest to west winds of 15-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Min RH
values in the valleys will generally be in the single digits
and 12-20 percent in the mountains.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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