815
FXUS65 KTWC 050831
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
131 AM MST Sun May 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Sunny and remaining warm today with windy conditions as
a dry weather system impacts the region. Some areas of blowing dust
are possible. Cooler Monday, then temperatures warm up the remainder
of the week into next weekend with continued afternoon breezes.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Mostly clear skies across southeast Arizona this
morning with some cirroform cloudiness as latest IR/WV satellite
imagery shows an upper low over northern California moving into the
Great Basin. While the core of this system will remain to the north
of our area as it pushes east today through tonight, the southern
end of the trough axis will move through Arizona with an associated
dry surface cold front. A tighter pressure gradient today will
result in windy conditions for most of southeast Arizona with
southwest winds of 15-30 mph with gusts of 35-45 mph. Wind speeds
will mostly remain just below advisory thresholds so will not hoist
any wind headlines. However, the combination of strong gusty winds,
dry conditions and high fire danger has resulted in the issuance of
a Red Flag Warning. See fire weather discussion below for additional
information. With the gusty winds, expect some areas of potential
blowing dust today, especially in the more typically prone areas
near the Willcox Playa. Meanwhile, ahead of the aforementioned cold
front, temperatures will remain a few degrees above normal with
highs around 90 in Tucson.

Monday will be the coolest day of the forecast period with highs
dropping about 3 to 7 degrees compared to today. Winds will drop
back down as well with typical afternoon breezes, however some
stronger sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph remain near the New Mexico
border.

The remainder of the week will have dry westerly flow as
temperatures remain slightly above normal through Thursday, then
warming to about 5 degrees above normal by next weekend. Each
afternoon will feature typical afternoon breezes and gustiness with
the strongest winds to the east of Tucson.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 06/12Z.
SKC-SCT conditions thru 06/00Z, with those SCT clouds AOA 20k ft
AGL. SCT layered clouds aft 06/00Z will be AOA 8k ft AGL. SFC wind
less than 12 kts and variable in direction thru 05/15Z, then
increasing SFC wind after 05/15Z, with SWLY SFC wind at 17-25 kts
and gusts up to 40 kts between 05/18Z and 06/03Z. SFC winds then
gradually decrease aft 06/03Z thru the end of the valid period to 5-
15 kts with the highest winds east of KTUS. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...High temperatures will be 2-5 degrees above normal
today, with brief cooling to below normal levels Monday.
Temperatures then remain near to slightly above normal through
Thursday before warming up more by next weekend. A dry weather
system will move to our north today, resulting in windy southwest
winds of 15-30 mph and gusts between 35-45 mph across most of
southeast Arizona. Breezy winds during the afternoon and early
evening hours then persist much of this week, especially to the east
of Tucson. Min RHs values in the valleys will be in the single
digits to lower teens, with values generally in the teens for the
mountains.

For today, the combination of strong and gusty southwest winds, low
relative humidity levels and a high fire danger rating will result
in critical fire weather conditions from the late morning through
early evening hours for most of southeast Arizona. A Red Flag
Warning remains in effect for all of southeast Arizona from 11 am to
7 pm MST this evening.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 am to 7 pm MST this evening for AZZ150>154.

&&

$$

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