Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 251706
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1106 AM MDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 AM MDT MON AUG 25 2014

SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHEASTERN WY IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS. BAND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF WAVE ARE
MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL SD. HAVE INCREASED CHANCES
OF PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY EAST OF PINE RIDGE. CURRENT
TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
UPPER LOW IN THE VICINITY OF WINNEPEG AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT MON AUG 25 2014

TUESDAY...SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN
THE MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS THE NEXT UPPER LOW PUSHES INTO UTAH. WITH WEAK
FLOW...IT WILL BE HARD TO GET ORGANIZED CONVECTION...HOWEVER
DIURNAL HEATING COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S MAY
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT
ON TUESDAY...ENERGY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN POTIONS OF THE AREA.

READINGS WILL WARM A LITTLE ON TUESDAY WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT MON AUG 25 2014

A GENERAL DRYING/WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE LAST PART OF
THE WEEK. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SLOWLY BRINGING AN UPPER
LOW FROM UTAH ON WED MRNG ACROSS SRN CO BY THU MRNG...AND THEN
INTO WRN KS BY FRI MRNG. A WEAK S/W TROF WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE
SRN CWA ON WED...SHIFTING SOUTHEAST BY THU. THE UPPER FLOW
GENERALLY WILL BE WEAK AS THE CWA IS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
LOW...AND THE STRONGER WESTERLIES ARE TO THE NORTH. S/W RIDGING
WILL WORK OVER THE CWA LATER THU AND FRI. THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OVER THE NWRN CONUS ON SATURDAY...WITH SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW
ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO
RETURN...AND THE MAIN LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
CWA AS THE UPPER TROUGH AFFECTS SRN CANADA. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THU-SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1103 AM MDT MON AUG 25 2014

MVFR CIGS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH LCL MVFR VSBY.
AS WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...STRATUS WITH MVFR/LCL IFR
CIGS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...55
SHORT TERM...MLS
LONG TERM...BUNKERS
AVIATION...7






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