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000
FXUS63 KUNR 141633
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1033 AM MDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1024 AM MDT FRI JUN 14 2013

UPPER RIDGE IS SHIFTING EAST AS TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES CONTINUES TO LIFT INTO CANADA. SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS
CROSSED MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH WINDS BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.
MORNING CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED EAST WITH CLOUD COVER DISSIPATING
ACROSS THE AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING DRIER AIR MOVING
INTO THE AREA. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
DAY WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT FRI JUN 14 2013

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN
SD...WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
INTO CENTRAL WY. FRONT HAS GONE THROUGH KGCC IN THE LAST HOUR OR
SO. WARM FRONT STRETCHES SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE PACIFIC
NW...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STRETCHING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A LOW LEVEL JET REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
WESTERN SD AND COMBINED WITH STRONG MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION IS
RESULTING IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS FAR NORTHEASTERN WY AND A GOOD PORTION OF WESTERN SD. A
STRONG SHORTWAVE IS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN MT...WITH
ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY STAYING NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. SKIES ARE VARIABLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S. WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...STILL BREEZY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SD PLAINS.

SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING...AS UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS WESTERN MT INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA. LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE NORTH AND
EAST ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET. BY MIDDAY...CHANCES FOR
STORMS SHOULD MAINLY BE EAST OF THE CWA...BUT WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES
ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL SD THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW AND COLD FRONT
STALL OUT AND INSTABILITY LINGERS. POST FRONTAL CLOUDINESS WILL
SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
BEFORE DRIER AIR EVENTUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST AS
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WESTERN SD PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA...TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN SD.

TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AND UPPER LOW PASSES ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. HOWEVER...EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN
WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN WY AND INTO
WESTERN NEB OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING OVER
WESTERN NEB. ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD MOSTLY
STAY SOUTH OF THE CWA...BUT WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PCPN LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN SD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S.

RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SATURDAY...WITH WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER AND EAST
OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN
THE 70S AND LOWER 80S. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE
BLACK HILLS. HAVE EXPANDED THE CHANCES EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSES THROUGH AND
THETA-E ADVECTION INCREASES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT FRI JUN 14 2013

UPPER LOW TRACKS INTO MINNESOTA ON SUNDAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH
ACROSS MONTANA INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
MODERATE Q-G FORCING WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES ON MONDAY AS STRONG UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. UPPER RIDGE THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS...AND REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY
GIVEN AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...CAP AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVES WILL BE LIMITING FACTOR.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ISSUED AT 1024 AM MDT FRI JUN 14 2013

AN ISOLATED -TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS SWRN
SD WITH MVFR VSBY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE NEXT 24
HOURS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...15
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...JOHNSON