Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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148
FXUS63 KUNR 232033
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
233 PM MDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening Through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 211 PM MDT Mon May 23 2016

Water vapor shows nearly stationary low over srn SASK with fairly
dry sw flow extending into the nrn plains. A notable short wave is
ejecting newd through far nrn CO with a few -tsra already forming
over far sern WY. At the sfc...weak low is located over far nwrn
WY.

Tonight...a few -tsra are possible given the short wave ejecting
newd...but given minimal moisture and instability overall coverage
will be limited to mainly higher terrain as well as nwrn SD in
closer proximity to the sfc low.

Tuesday...slightly warmer temps are expected. Dry conditions
expected in the morning...but a more substantial negatively tilted short
wave will eject newd towards the cwfa by later in the aftn. MLCAPE
expected to rise into the 1000-2000J/KG range along with ample
shear for some strong to severe storms...with the best convective
parameters generally along/South of I-90. Best concentration of
storms will likely be in the BLKHLS as well as southwest through
south central SD. Precipitable waters in the 125-175% of normal
range from southwest through south central SD could result in
heavier rains for that area. Storms will end from southwest to
northeast by late evening.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Through Monday)
Issued at 211 PM MDT Mon May 23 2016

Persistent upper level troughing over the northwest
CONUS will keep active southwest flow across the Northern Plains
through the Memorial Day weekend. Periodic shortwave energy will
eject out of the trough, keeping a daily chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast through the holiday weekend.
Temperatures will be near seasonal averages, with highs each day in
the mid 60s to upper 70s. Lows at night will be in the 40s to lower
50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Tuesday)
Issued At 211 PM MDT Mon May 23 2016

An isolated shower or thunderstorm will be possible
across the Black Hills and far northwest South Dakota this afternoon
and evening. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected through Tuesday
morning.

&&

.UNR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Johnson
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...MLS



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