Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 030510
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1010 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 252 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER
EASTERN NEB. A WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHES ACROSS SD INTO EASTERN
MT. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE STORM SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHEAST
CONTINUES TO BRING SOME SNOWFALL TO MOSTLY THE BLACK HILLS AREA
AND SOUTHERN SD AT THIS TIME. TEMPS ARE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30
DEGREES. WINDS ARE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST...GUSTING TO AROUND
30 MPH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

SHORT RANGE MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON TAPERING SNOW OFF ACROSS THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS LOW MOVES INTO NORTHWEST IA
AND SOUTHERN MN. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL BRING
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOSTLY BE CONFINED TO FAR
NORTHEAST WY...THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS...AND FAR NORTHWEST SD LATE
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE NUMEROUS
OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AS UPSLOPE FLOW AND SOME INSTABILITY
DEVELOP. A LIGHT ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
BLACK HILLS. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
SD PLAINS DURING THE MORNING AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN. TEMPS
WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S. TEMPS THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS WILL MOSTLY BOTTOM OUT IN
THE TEENS...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016

ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST
WILL CREATE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. DUE TO A LACK OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY FOR THOSE PERIODS EXCEPT FOR A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW
OVER THE BLACK HILLS ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WHERE THE ENHANCED LIFT
MAY BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT A LITTLE SNOW AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL THEN SHIFT EASTWARD
LEADING TO WARMING TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE NEAR
AVERAGE...CLIMBING TO AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN AVERAGE BY
SATURDAY. A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING LOW CHANCES OF RAIN AND
SNOW...MAINLY TO NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY AS COOLER AIR FLOWS IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR AVERAGE WITH COLDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPS ON
MONDAY. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY DUE TO SOME MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1008 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016

AREAS OF MVFR/LCL IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA. LCL IFR VSBY/LIFR CIGS WITH FOG ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHEAST WYOMING. SCATTERED -SHSN EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING INTO THE BLACK HILLS LATE TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY...WITH
IFR/LIFR VSBY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...7


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