Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 101129
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
529 AM MDT WED SEP 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT WED SEP 10 2014

WATER VAPOR SHOWS DEEP TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS. STRONG SHORT WAVE
IS TRACKING EWD ACROSS ERN MT/WY/CO...WITH A MORE POWERFUL UPPER
LOW DIVING SEWD THROUGH THE CNDN ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...NLY FLOW
CONTINUES TO USHER COLDER AIR INTO THE NRN PLAINS. WDSPRD LOW
CLOUDS AND SCT -SHRA/DZ COVERS THE CWFA.

TODAY...SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD INTO THE WRN
DAKOTAS...WITH WDSPRD -RA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY FROM NERN
WY INTO NWRN SD. GIVEN THE ABUNDANT LOW STRATUS AND COLD
ADVECTION...TEMPS NOT EXPECTED TO RISE A GREAT AMOUNT.

TONIGHT...UPPER LOW WILL DIG INTO MT WITH POWERFUL 110KT JET
STREAK CROSSING NERN WY INTO WRN SD. INTENSE SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL
OVERSPREAD THE CWFA AND BRING MORE WDSPRD RAIN TO THE AREA. EVEN
COLDER AIR WILL WORK SWD INTO THE CWFA AND WILL ALLOW RAIN TO
TRANSITION TO SNOW OVER PARTS OF NERN WY INTO FAR WRN SD AFT
MIDNIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY LIMITED
TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BLKHLS WHERE A FEW INCHES ARE EXPECTED
BY MRNG.

THURSDAY...UPPER LOW/TROF WILL TRANSLATE SLOWLY EWD INTO THE NRN
PLAINS WITH CONTINUED WDSPRD PCPN ACRS THE CWFA. THERMAL PROFILES
CERTAINLY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ACRS NERN WY THROUGH FAR WRN SD.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE TOUGH ON THE PLAINS...BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON HOW HEAVY THE SNOW FALLS. PCPN SHOULD BEGIN TO WIND
DOWN LATER IN THE DAY...AND END BY FRI MRNG AS SFC HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS. SOME AREAS OF NERN WY AND FAR WRN MAY
EXPERIENCE A HARD FREEZE FRI MRNG...AND THAT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
HOW QUICKLY SKIES CLEAR.

HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THE BLKHLS WHERE CONFIDENCE
IS RATHER HIGH THAT SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS HIGHLY DEPENDENT
ON ELEVATION. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT AN ADVISORY MAY NEED TO
BE ISSUED FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NERN WY AND WILL LET THE DAY
SHIFT EVALUATE MORE DATA.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT WED SEP 10 2014

MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES AND EVENTUALLY MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE LEVELS BY MONDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS
PROGGED BY A COUPLE OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TO SLIDE THROUGH THE
AREA ON SUNDAY AND COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 529 AM MDT WED SEP 10 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS OF LIFR THIS
MORNING. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN AREAS THIS
EVENING AND SPREADING EAST OVERNIGHT. RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS AFTER 06Z.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM MDT
     THURSDAY FOR SDZ024-028-029.

WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM MDT
     THURSDAY FOR WYZ057.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26





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