Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 211649
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
949 AM MST WED JAN 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 918 AM MST WED JAN 21 2015

MOIST NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...WITH ENHANCED UPSLOPE SNOW FAIRLY PERSISTENT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND SPEARFISH/STURGIS FOOTHILLS. HAVE UPPED
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THESE AREAS AS DEADWOOD AREA
HAS RECEIVED CLOSE TO THAT ALREADY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT SHOULD FALL OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY BY NOON...WITH
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. REMAINDER OF WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION. SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH RAPIDLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER TROF AXIS SHIFTS
SOUTHEAST AND SURFACE HIGH SLIDES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 148 AM MST WED JAN 21 2015

CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS COLD FRONT FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...IN
REPOSE TO UPPER TROF DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY BACK INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY...WITH
BREEZY WINDS. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...THEN DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON. A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW POSSIBLE ON THE PLAINS...WITH
1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION FOR THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS.

COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
BEGINS EARLY THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 148 AM MST WED JAN 21 2015

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS WEAK RIDGING
REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE
SATURDAY INTO SAT NIGHT AS AN UPPER WAVE AND COOL FRONT CROSS THE
AREA. QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW GIVEN THE FAST SPEED OF THE SYSTEM
PUSHING THROUGH. MUCH OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE RAIN AS TEMPS REMAIN
MILD. SOME PRECIP MAY LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...HOWEVER BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED MOST
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 948 AM MST WED JAN 21 2015

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA AS A SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION BRINGING LIGHT SNOW.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT
AS DRIER AIR MOVES BACK IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...15
SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...POJORLIE





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