Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 292317
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
517 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

SHARP UPPER RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER ROCKIES...BUT STARTS TO BREAK
DOWN TO A BROADER RIDGE AS SHORTWAVES TRACK FROM CANADA TOWARD THE
MIDWEST. ONE WAVE OVER NORTHWESTERN MT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEASTERN
MT AND BLACK HILLS LATE TONIGHT...SO EXPECT MORE NOCTURNAL STORMS
AGAIN...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A LEE TROF
FORMS OVER EASTERN MT...WITH SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW BRINGING HIGHER
DEWPOINTS TO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. STORMS SHOULD BE STRONGER WITH
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROF. CAPE INCREASES TO MORE THAN 1000 J/KG
OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND THETA-E RIDGE OVER WESTERN SD...WHICH
COULD SUPPORT HAIL. CAPE DIMINISHES AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND THETA-E
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS WITH TROF...SO CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TOWARD CENTRAL SD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR TODAYS...BUT A FEW DEGREES COOLER OVER EASTERN ZONES.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO FLATTEN WEDNESDAY AS IT
RETROGRADES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED
ACROSS THE CWA AS A COUPLE OF WEAK LOWS MOVE FROM EASTERN MT INTO
EASTERN NE/KS INTO THURSDAY. TSRA MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WHEN A BETTER DEFINED SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS/NEAR THE CWA WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT SUGGESTING
SUBSIDENCE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS INCONSISTENT WITH THE DETAILS
HOWEVER...SO HAVE LEFT POPS MAINLY IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY AT
ANY GIVEN TIME ESPECIALLY GIVEN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND LARGER
TROUGH/SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE DURING THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 515 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TROUGH TUESDAY AFTN. ISOLATED TSRA
MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT NEAR THE BLACK HILLS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
DROPS INTO NORTHEAST WY/EXTREME WESTERN SD WITH LOCAL MVFR VSBYS.
ADDITIONAL TSRA MAY OCCUR TUESDAY MORNING OVER NORTHEAST
WY/NORTHWEST SD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...10



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