Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 262315
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
515 PM MDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening Through Friday Night)
Issued at 229 PM MDT Thu May 26 2016

Current upper analysis shows an upper low over North Dakota,
another upper low over Colorado and a third upper low over
Alberta.

Tonight, the Colorado upper low will move only slightly, into
eastern Colorado with deeper synoptic forcing wrapping northward into
south central SD, which is expected to lead to higher coverage
SHRA/TSRA activity. Also, energy wrapping into northwestern SD
from the ND upper low will produce a few -TSRA in the evening.
Ongoing active convection over and to the east of the Black Hills
should wind down quickly in the evening.

On Friday, the CO upper low will weaken over western Kansas and
will then move out to the northeast late. Expect to see more
isold-sct -SHRA/-TSRA over parts of the CWA on Friday but
instability and forcing will be weaker than today. Temperatures
will be near guidance.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Through Thursday)
Issued at 229 PM MDT Thu May 26 2016

Persistent upper level trough over the northwest
CONUS will keep active west to southwest flow across the Northern
Plains for the Memorial Day weekend and into the middle of next
week. Periodic shortwave energy will eject out of the trough,
keeping a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast
through the extended period. Right now it looks like Monday/Mon
night could bring the best chances for storms. Temperatures will be
near seasonal averages, with highs each day generally in the mid 60s
to upper 70s. Lows at night will be in the 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued At 510 PM MDT Thu May 26 2016

VFR conds expected through the period. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms will be possible this evening, especially over SW-
SCENTRAL SD...with activity diminishing through evening. Shra/TS
will re-develop once again Friday afternoon...most numerous over
scentral SD.

&&

.UNR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...JC


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