Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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114
FXUS63 KBIS 180627
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1227 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1223 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

Going forecast remains in good shape as precipitation continues to
taper over south central North Dakota. Wave to the north continues
its gradual approach, which may lead to some light snow later
tonight over far northern locations.

UPDATE
Issued at 928 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

Interesting evening with a few isolated thunderstorms across Stark
and Hettinger Counties earlier along a sfc trough axis, with a
few reports of either sleet or small hail. This area of convection
continues now across western Morton and northwestern Grant
Counties, though have not seen any lightning or cloud pulses in
over 45 minutes. Thermal profiles suggest either snow or sleet.
BUFKIT analysis did and still do show some elevated instability.
Will maintain POPs through this evening for this activity,
after midnight the trough axis washes out over ND.

UPDATE
Issued at 627 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

No major changes to the inherited forecast. Blended hourly weather
elements with current observations. Increasing low to mid level
clouds tonight remains on track with a chance for light snow far
north.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 319 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

In the short term, look for dwindling chances for precipitation this
afternoon and cooler conditions Saturday.

A west-to-east oriented surface front located along the border of
the Dakotas was slowly moving southward. Associated chances for
precipitation will gradually dissipate in southern areas through the
remainder of the afternoon. However, chances for precipitation
(mostly rain) are slight. RAP/HRRR BUFKIT soundings indicate dry air
at the surface was limiting mid/upper level moisture from reaching
the ground. Observations in the south confirm BUFKIT soundings with
no reports of precipitation.

As Saturday rolls around the aforementioned surface low will continue
a slow progression into SD with a surface high sliding southeast
into North Dakota from Saskatchewan. Cool Canadian air will
accompany the high, creating below average temperatures for most
locations in western and central ND. Forecast highs for the CWA will
range from the mid teens in the northeast, to the upper 30s in the
southwest.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 319 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

A roller coaster of temperatures is expected for the upcoming week.
Ridging over the area to start the week will bring warming
temperatures, with a dry clipper zipping through the region late
Monday into Tuesday bringing temperatures back down. Temperatures
then again climb for mid week into the Thanksgiving Holiday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1223 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

Low VFR/MVFR ceilings are expected to move from northwest to
southeast across ND late tonight/early Saturday morning. KMOT/KJMS
and possibly KISN are likely to be impacted by low VFR/MVFR
ceilings. Northwest winds will increase to 10 to 20 knots Saturday
afternoon.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...JV



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