Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 200037

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
737 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

...updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Strong SW winds beginning to increase as of midday, and will only
increase further through 6 pm. Some gusts near 40 mph are likely.
Strong dryline near the CO/KS border as of noon will progress
quickly to the eastern CWA by late afternoon, with dewpoints
crashing into the 30s. High confidence the combination of this dry
air intrusion and strong SW winds will create a dangerous wildfire
setup for several hours this afternoon. Please be aware that
cigarettes and catalytic converters on cars start the majority
of dormant/cured grass fires, and these can be prevented. Already
90 degrees here at the office as of noon, and many locations will
approach/achieve 100 this afternoon.

Winds will diminish some around 7 pm as heating and mixing wane,
becoming southerly at 15-25 mph and gusty. A sharp and well-
defined, but dry, cold front is slated to slide through SW KS
tonight, during the 1am-4am timeframe. The cold front will be
accompanied by an abrupt shift to northerly winds, also gusty to
near 30 mph for several hours late tonight.

Wednesday, winds will veer NEly and remain gusty for several hours
after sunrise, once mixing commences. Pressure gradients will
weaken during the course of the afternoon, with winds become
easterly and decreasing to near 10 mph by late day. Few if any
clouds with a dry airmass persisting. Temperatures will be
noticeably cooler compared to Tuesday`s unseasonable heat, with
highs reduced to near 80 NW to near 90 SE (Barber county).

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

It`s right back to windy hot and dry on Thursday. 12z ECMWF spins
up an impressive 995 mb leeside cyclone east of Denver, inducing
strong south winds across SW KS once again. Pressure gradient will
support gusts near 40 mph, with enhanced fire danger returning,
especially west of US 283 and west of the lee trough/dryline.
Models continue to suggest there may be a rogue thunderstorm over
the SE zones late Thursday, but kept the grids dry with pops < 15%.
Well back into the 90s and well above normal.

Meridional synoptic pattern changes little on Friday, with a
strong 556 dm upper low over Nevada and a blocking 590 dm ridge
near the Great Lakes. Strong SW flow aloft will be sandwiched in
between over SW KS, with strong south winds continuing. Models
have backed off some on convective potential late Friday, but
still expect convergence on the leeside trough/dryline to get a
few storms going (mainly west of US 83) Friday afternoon/evening.

Stagnant pattern continues Saturday, with both the western US
upper low and Great Lakes upper high moving little. Forcing for
ascent ahead of the Great Basin upper low will therefore make
little progress eastward as well, keeping any convective potential
relegated to the western counties late Saturday (mainly west of
US 283). Temperatures will begin to cool gradually, as heights
begin to gradually lower aloft.

Sunday and Sunday night, closed low and upper trough begin to make
some eastward headway into NW Colorado by Monday morning. This
evolution will allow scattered convection to increase across
SW KS, as forcing and lift increase. GFS and the FB model blend
are more enthusiastic with this compared to 12z ECMWF, with pop
grids in the likely category by Sunday night. Heights and
thickness decrease Sunday, and along with clouds/convection,
temperatures will cool back to the 75-85 range Sunday afternoon.

The good news is rain opportunities will continue on Monday, as
SW KS remains in a zone of favored lift SE of slowly ejecting
Central Rockies trough. Let`s hope we receive some sorely needed
rainfall Sunday/Monday, since 12z ECMWF depicts a dry/quiet PNA
(ridge west/trough east) pattern by late next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 730 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

The main challenge overnight will be wind gusts, which the local
GFSMOS maintains at some TAF locations much longer than others.
Hedged on the side of more gusts for the most part in this TAF
set, although potential exists to be overdone especially in the
hours after the cold frontal boundary that will move through the
area late tonight flipping winds from the north.


Issued at 1227 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Critical fire conditions will spread west to east across SW KS
through this afternoon. A red flag warning is in effect for most
zones through 8 pm CDT. Gusts near 40 mph are expected, along with
min RH falling to the 9-15% range. Any wildfire ignitions will be
very difficult to control in this environment. Winds will diminish
some around 7 pm, and become southerly averaging 15-25 mph with
higher gusts. A sharp but dry cold front passage is expected
tonight during the 1am - 4am timeframe, which will bring an abrupt
shift to gusty north winds, also gusting near 30 mph. Any fire
fighting efforts this evening will need to contend with this
abrupt northerly wind shift after midnight.


DDC  57  84  60  93 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  53  82  56  93 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  52  80  54  90 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  56  83  58  93 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  59  82  59  94 /   0   0   0  10
P28  68  89  66  95 /   0   0   0  10


Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for



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